All you need to know about Iberian America

The Whitening of U.S. Latinos

Published November 12, 2021 in Personal Stories & Opinions - 14 Comments

There is often a discussion in the US about how white people will soon become a minority within our lifetimes.

The idea is usually thrown around more often by either right wing folks who hate the idea or left wing folks who jerk off to the idea.

Among the discussion is also the topic of Latino immigration.

Of course, it’s not just Latino immigrants who are making the country “less white” given all of the immigrants from around the world that the US gets.

Still, when discussing the “diversification” of the US, the topic of Latino immigrants is obviously the first thing that many Americans think of given how they make the news way more often with the occasional headline about migrant caravans at the border and such.

Though, even then, not all of those migrants are even Latino as you can see here.

Regardless, given that this website is about all things Iberian America, we’ll focus on the Latino immigrants specifically.

More specifically, I feel it’s interesting to discuss the idea of the “whitening” of U.S. Latinos.

For, if we were to assume that the U.S. will become less white, we should probably discuss if Latinos could ever be seen as white!

Do such instances occur?

And, if they do, how does that impact the timeline regarding when the U.S. could ever have a white minority population?

It’s a topic I touched upon briefly in this article here regarding a Pew Research poll that had folks self-report what skin color they are.

Oddly enough, about 80% of participants self-reported as being “light skinned.”

While I haven’t met that many Latinos in the U.S., that number does seem quite high for what I would have expected.

Because almost all of the Latinos that I have met in the U.S. were not very light skinned.

Granted, I’m from Iowa and have spent time in Ohio.

It’s not Texas, Florida or California.

Either way, it’s a point to consider.

Could we see the day that Latinos are seen as “white” or at least some of them anyhow?

Let’s break it down.

Latino as a Cultural Identity & Not Race

This is the first thing that needs to be mentioned.

Before I ever left Iowa, I probably always assumed that all Latinos were medium brown skinned.

Not White, Asian nor Black.

However, after my years living in Latin America, that idea quickly became debunked in my head.

Clearly, there’s a lot of diversity among Latinos and not all of them are medium brown skinned.

That’s simply what I saw among the few Latinos I met in small town Iowa.

And, in that article I wrote about Pew Research, this comment left behind summarized well the reality of it:

“….some Hispanics are obviously white and some are not but if we recognise Hispanic/Latino as a cultural identity rather than a racial one then we won’t go far wrong….”

Entirely true!

That’s simply the first thing that needs to be mentioned before we go forward.

But there’s a few complications to consider before we dig even deeper.

The Latinos Seen as White

However, for Latinos (even white ones) to be seen as white, there are extra complications that come with that in the U.S.

For the most part, people tend to classify all Latinos as not being white in the U.S. even if they are white!

However, one could argue that a Latino can become “so white” passing that he is more easily characterized as such.

Assuming he at least is white skinned or white passing, the next issue is usually the last name from my understanding.

Take George Zimmerman as the comment above mentioned briefly as you can see here.

"The ‘Hispanics are becoming white’ is happening now with Kyle Rittenhouse and his ‘brother from another mother’ George Zimmerman who proclaimed their Hispanic parentage to show the world that they’re not racists but the pair of them have a Hispanic parent. I am sure no-one would look at either of them twice as anything other than white in the United States."

Side Note: Never knew Rittenhouse was Latino? I did hear that about Zimmerman. Here's an article discussing Rittenhouse's "Latino heritage possibility" here.

Anyway, as you can read here, Zimmerman has a Peruvian mother whose last name was Mesa but his last name is Zimmerman.

So now he even has a non-Latino sounding last name.

While the man isn’t entirely white looking as you can see here…

“Very shocking to me that simply based on my last name, people would make that presumption.”

He also doesn’t have the darkest skin tone either and his story of shooting Trayvon Martin was sometimes mixed in with mentions of “white supremacy” as you can read here.

Or how, as you can read here, he sued Pete Buttigieg for his tweet claiming white supremacy in these words here.

“Trayvon Martin would have been 25 today. How many 25th birthdays have been stolen from us by white supremacy, gun violence, prejudice and fear? #BlackLivesMatter”

Of course, it’s not just the George Zimmerman case where this is relevant.

Political Changes?

Some have argued, as you can see in this article I wrote here, that more Latinos will be classified as white or somehow tied to “white supremacy” as more of them vote Republican.

Personally? I can see that happening.

You have cases all the time of the media machine and politicians on both the right and left exploiting race issues for financial and political gain.

The classic example being Nick Sandman here.

But what about Latinos?

Well, in that article on Pew Research here, I cited one CNN article that made the claim that many Latinos will eventually be seen as white as you can see that article here.

Here’s a few quotes.

"The data also call into question whether America is destined to become a so-called minority-majority nation, where whites represent a minority of the nation's population," said the The New York Times. "Those projections assume that Hispanics aren't white, but if Hispanics ultimately identify as white Americans, then whites will remain the majority for the foreseeable future."

It could go either way. A study suggests that Latino identity fades across successive generations as immigrant connections fade away. If large numbers of Latino people identify as White in the future, Whiteness will expand. The enhanced status and socio-economic benefits that come from identifying as White will be too tempting for many to ignore.”

You have other articles to bring up also.

In order to bring up the political element to this, we have this Washington Post article here that goes into the topic.

“Such diversity highlights the fact that President Trump’s share of the Latino vote in November actually rose over 2016, notwithstanding years of incendiary rhetoric targeting Mexicans and other Latino communities. Yes, Trump’s voters — and his mob — are disproportionately White, but one of the more unsettling exit-poll data points of the 2020 election was that a quarter to a third of Latino voters voted to reelect Trump.

The chairman of the neo-fascist Proud Boys is Enrique Tarrio, a Latino raised in Miami’s Little Havana who identifies as Afro-Cuban; when he arrived in Washington for the Jan. 6 march, he was arrested for allegedly burning a Black Lives Matter banner taken from a Black church the month before.

Multiracial whiteness promises Latino Trump supporters freedom from the politics of diversity and recognition. For voters who see the very act of acknowledging one’s racial identity as itself racist, the politics of multiracial whiteness reinforces their desired approach to colorblind individualism. In the politics of multiracial whiteness, anyone can join the MAGA movement and engage in the wild freedom of unbridled rage and conspiracy theories.”

In a way, you can already see the corporate left wing of the media beginning the narrative of “white supremacist Latinos.”

The reason for why they do this, in my opinion, is one intellectual and another for financial and political gain.

While it is true that racism exists among Latinos and they can show sentiments of colorism, it is also true that the, as I said, the media on both political aisles plays racial divisions.

A parody of such can be seen in this video here.

Random black dude gets shot.

Nobody really gives a fuck about the facts as to if the shooting was justified or not (sometimes is, sometimes it isn’t).

Protests and riots start.

Both sides play the footage of the protests and the trial for political gain.

Democrats talk all day about white supremacy and Republicans discuss things like law and order, Blue Lives Matter, etc.

It drives up ratings.

And it gets voters pissed off enough to hopefully get them to the polls.

With American predicted to becoming less white, you do have issues from both sides as how to address that.

For the Democrats, it could be as simple as expanding the idea of “whiteness” to Latinos so even someone like Zimmerman – a Latino man – can get their voters angry (which, as I said, both sides tend to not give a fuck about the facts and, in this case, yell “white supremacy” anyhow).

And, on top of that, given the recent Republican successful efforts in getting more Latino voters under Trump, I imagine that encouraged the corporate left of the media to shift a little bit the narrative about U.S. Latinos anyhow (especially if, in the future, Republicans have more success with them but that’s yet to be seen).

For the Republicans, it’s a matter of expanding your voter base in the long run to stay relevant and still capable of winning elections.

Even the GOP admitted this after their 2012 loss with Romney in which they released their own autopsy report regarding the reasons for their political loss and what they need to do going forward as you can see here:

“The report, called the "Growth and Opportunity Project," lays out an extensive plan the RNC believes will lead the party to victory with an extensive outreach to women, African-American, Asian, Hispanic and gay voters. Among the plans: hiring paid outreach staffers across the country in a $10 million push that begins right away; backing "comprehensive immigration reform"; abbreviating the presidential primary process with fewer debates, specifically saying the party would like at least half the 20 there were during the 2012 cycle; and moving the convention to June or July, as well as improving the data and digital effort.

Priebus noted that the party's policies are fundamentally sound but require a softer tone and broader outreach, include a stronger push for African-American, Latino, Asian, women and gay voters.”

Funny enough, the guy known as Trump who is even more vocal about illegal immigrants and their “crime, drugs and rape” managed to expand the Republican appeal among Latino voters than someone like Romney ultimately.

Though, as we can see here, being tougher on immigration isn’t necessarily an idea hated on by every Latino immigrant.

“Amid a growing number of apprehensions at the U.S.-Mexico border that have reached levels last seen in 2006, 42% of Latinos say increasing border security is a very important immigration policy goal, while only 18% say increasing deportations is a very important goal.”

Among many other polling questions given to U.S. Latinos! For more interesting information on how Latinos responded to immigration policy questions, check out that article here.

Anyway, I could go all day on this topic and dig into it much deeper but we’ll leave it at that for now.

There’s a few other important details that need to be addressed outside of any political motivations that might exist for portraying more Latinos as “white,” “white adjacent,” “white passing” or “working with white supremacy.”

The Historical Precedent

Remember that CNN article I mentioned before?

It actually did have a few good points to bring up that should be mentioned.

One of them being the historical precedent for expanding the idea of who is white.

Let’s quote it here.

“In books like "How The Irish Became White" and "Working Toward Whiteness," scholars have argued that the definition of Whiteness has expanded to include Irish, Italian and Jewish people -- groups that once weren't considered fully White in the US.”

This actually reminds me of a talking point brought forth by more right-leaning folks at times when discussing slavery and slave reparations in the US.

In which, as a point against slave reparations, some will say “well, the Irish were seen as non-white and treated as indentured servants. So, therefore, no reparations!”

And, technically, they are right that some Irish folks were treated that way as you can see here.

The Italians or Sicilians?

Here’s a few quotes from this article here.

“In certain parts of the South during the Jim Crow era, Italians "occupied a racial middle ground within the otherwise unforgiving, binary caste system of white-over-black." Though Italians were viewed as white for purposes of naturalization and voting, their social standing was that they represented a "problem at best." Their racial status was impacted by their appearance and that they did not "act" white, engaging in manual labor ordinarily reserved for blacks. Italians continued to occupy a "middle ground in the racial order" through the 1920s.

However, "color challenges were never sustained or systematic" when it came to Italians, who were "largely accepted as white by the widest variety of people and institutions" throughout the U.S. Even in the South, such as Louisiana, any attempts to disenfranchise them "failed miserably"

During the majority of American history, Sicilians were often not considered white. Around 1900, as Sicilians were disembarking at Ellis Island and New Orleans by the millions, they were required to check off "Southern Italian" or "Sicilian" rather than "White" on entry forms. Emigration from Sicily to the United States began before Italian unification and reached its peak at a time when regional differences were still very strong and marked, both linguistically and ethnically. Therefore, many of the Sicilian immigrants identified (and still identify) primarily on a regional rather than a national basis. This difference has largely contributed to Sicilians identifying or being labeled as non-white in America.

After large numbers of Sicilians entered into the United States, legal restrictions were put in place to stop further immigration of Sicilians. The Emergency Quota Act, and the subsequent Immigration Act of 1924 sharply reduced immigration from Sicily except for relatives of Sicilians already in the United States. In certain parts of the South during the Jim Crow era, Sicilians, even more so than Italians generally, were affected by discriminatory policies. The reason Sicilians were much more prone to racial discrimination than other Mediterranean groups (such as Northern Italians or Greeks) was due to the fact that they were seen as much darker.”

Yet, to this day, just about anyone sees anyone of Irish or Italian descent as white.

I should know – I am almost entirely of Irish descent (like 92%).

My dad even has a book of our ancestors going way back with photos of some random dude on a farm in Ireland.

But, going forward, how does this relate to Latinos now?

Well, I found this quote from the last source interesting.

The reason Sicilians were much more prone to racial discrimination than other Mediterranean groups (such as Northern Italians or Greeks) was due to the fact that they were seen as much darker.”

Let’s make a comparison.

The Whiteness of U.S. Latinos

It’s always been my opinion that, for any Latino to be seen as white, he’d have to come close to being “white passing.”

Shit – if Zimmerman can be seen as white by some, then I guess a lot of Latinos can since, in my eyes, he isn’t overly light skinned but not too dark either.

I wouldn’t have classified him as white personally because he does have an extra bit of a tan but I do remember many people classifying him as such when getting into heated discussion about the Trayvon Martin shooting.

Anyway, I do strongly believe that more Latinos will be “seen as white” if they have white enough looking skin.

Similar to how the Irish had better treatment than the Sicilians.

But how many Latinos are white passing?

Well, according to that Pew research article cited initially, about 80% of Latinos self-identify as “light skinned” as you can see in this screenshot here.

Though, as I wrote in that article just cited here, I do doubt the 80% number.

It does seem a bit heavy.

You might have had some Latinos self-report as whiter than they really are for personal reasons and also keep in mind that, from what I read only, I guess Latinos can appear whiter near the winter and that survey wasn’t taken in the summer.

Anyway, what do other sources say?

Well, we have that same source on the Italians before giving us this information here.

“On the 2000 Census form, race and ethnicity are distinct questions. A respondent who checks the "Hispanic or Latino" ethnicity box must also check one or more of the five official race categories. Of the over 35 million Hispanics or Latinos in the 2000 Census, a plurality of 48.6% identified as "white," 48.2% identified as "Other" (most of whom are presumed of mixed races such as mestizo or mulatto), and the remaining 3.2% identified as "black" and other races.

By 2010, the number of Hispanics identifying as white has increased by a wide margin since the year 2000 on the 2010 Census form, of the over 50 million people who identified as Hispanic and Latino Americans a majority 53% identified as "white", 36.7% identified as "Other" (most of whom are presumed of mixed races such as mestizo or mulatto), 6% identified as "Two or more races", 2.5% identified as "Black", 1.4% identified as "American Indian and Alaska Native", and the remaining 0.5% identified as other races.”

Outside of my defense for using Wikipedia as a source (let’s be real, it’s not A BAD source given how well-cited it is), one interesting to bring up is how, in 2000, it seems that the distinction between “Hispanic” and “white” was made?

With survey makers recognizing more often that someone can be both and having them check not only if they are Latino but also white?

Though I haven’t taken those surveys in a very long time, I do remember taking a few way back when I was a kid where “Latino” was categorized as a race.

No idea how it is now (and I’m not old in anyway though I guess the early 2000s is seen as way back for some like me).

Anyway, I wonder if that could be seen as evidence of an historical trend towards recognizing that Hispanics and Latinos can also be white in the US?

At least to how they might have been seen beforehand.

On top of that, we have this bit here.

“As of 2019, 58.5 million or 18% of Americans identified themselves ethnically as Latino. Of those, 38.3 million, or 65.5% (11.8% of the total US population), also self-identified as white.”

That information was cited here and came from this source here.

Then you have this bit here for comparison sake.

“In the 2000 census, the responses that contained a race specified by the Office of Management and Budget and a race not specified by OMB, were reclassified to match the races that OMB had considered. In this way, 44.24% of the hispanic population that had marked as white and another race not specified by the OMB was recategorized as only white.”

The information was cited here and came from this source here.

Interesting!

So a 21.26% increase in Latinos identifying as white?

Wonder what could be behind that?

Why the Drop: Interracial Marriage?

 It is a question as to why seemingly more Latinos might identify as white now than before.

Well, one theory, as you can see in this screenshot here, is due to marriages with non-Hispanic whites.

We have this source here claiming as such with their own source for that information to be found here.

“In 2017, the Pew Research Center reported that high intermarriage rates and declining Latin American immigration has led to 11% of US adults with Latino ancestry (5.0 million people) to no longer identify as Latino.”

You also have this interesting source here showing the racial preferences of men and women on dating sites like this one.

In which most of the groups, including Latinos, have a strong preference for dating white men and Asian women.

“All women except black women are most drawn to white men, and men of all races (with one notable exception) prefer Asian women.”

But what about issues stemming from generation to generation beyond simply just marrying a non-Latino person?

Generation to Generation Issues

Next, we have the “generation to generation issue.”

Let’s start by citing this source here that uses this source here for its data.

“First generation immigrants from Latin America identify as Latino at very high rates (97%) which reduces in each succeeding generation, second generation (92%), third generation (77%), and fourth generation (50%).”

I wonder how long it takes for that 50% number to drop to 0%?

Anyway, I can think of some Latinos in the US who were like this.

Now that I think about it, I do know of one white Latino dude in high school who was white looking, didn’t speak Spanish and who didn’t seem to be “very Latino” so to speak?

I don’t know how much he identified with his roots despite having a Latino last name. That’s all I can say on him.

Next, there was a Latina gal I went to prom with in high school who very much knew her roots (whose dad was even born in Mexico) but she changed her last name to something non-Latino sounding way back.

Why?

She was raised in some small town in Iowa close to where I lived where she was heavily discriminated against from what I remember her telling me. Some fucker even tried running her over on his truck once.

While she identifies as Latina, the changing of her last name is interesting, I suppose. Makes me wonder how many other Latinos choose to not identify with their roots or distance themselves from them due to any discrimination?

In college, there was a dude born in the US with Guatemalan parents but he didn’t speak Spanish all too well.

Back in high school, there was also some Latino kid (light brown skin) whose name was Nick. Did he speak Spanish? Not at all.

There was also a medium brown skin kid named Josh that I was friends with. From what I remember, he was born in Brazil and somehow ended up in my small town. Similarly, there wasn’t much about him that seemed “Brazilian” or “different.”

On top of all of this, I also wonder how, as a minority, growing up in a small town community of people different from you makes you, as the minority, adopt to the climate?

While I can talk about being a racial minority in Mexico, I can’t speak to growing up as such (and definitely not so much in a small town setting).

But I always imagined that has an effect on some of the mentioned Latinos above. But in ways I couldn’t really go into detail and only speculate on. I have no idea.

And, beyond the small-town setting, how else could one’s “Latino ness” be withered away over generations?

We already discussed the main ones.

Perhaps the Latino parent procreates with a non-Latino.

Maybe raising them in a small-town setting with few other Latinos to relate to makes them feel more pressure to assimilate to the culture of the broader community?

Either by discrimination and/or not having many resources to have them grow up connecting and enjoying with Latino culture.

Also, by not living in Latin America and living in a country where the vast majority of people are not Latino (be it in a rural or urban setting), I imagine that has an effect also.

And, on top of that, perhaps not learning Spanish or Portuguese has an effect also.

How many Latinos don’t know Spanish in the US?

Well, this source here gives us some idea:

“A Simmons Market Research survey recorded that 19 percent of Hispanics speak only Spanish, 9 percent speak only English, 55 percent have limited English proficiency, and 17 percent are fully English-Spanish bilingual.”

And that number is technically falling as you can see here.

“More than 37 million Latinos in the U.S. speak Spanish at home, making it the country’s most common non-English language. But while the number of Latinos who speak Spanish at home continues to increase due to the overall growth of the Latino population, the share of Latinos who speak the language has declined over the past decade or so: 73% of Latinos spoke Spanish at home in 2015, down from 78% in 2006, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data.”

I imagine that the number of Latinos who speak Spanish (fluently and not fluently) falls down at similar rates to those who identify as Latino by generation as we saw before.

Though, if I’m being honest, that’s just speculation.

Either way, it all brings us to that type of Latino a few generations away.

The White Man Who Was Once Latino

It does bring into question then, no?

What does it take for a Latino to be seen as white in the coming decades?

Well, as we showed before, even polls now ask both if you are Latino and what race you are (white, black, Asian, etc).

I imagine that – with the trends above – of Latinos identifying less with being Latino by each generation with more interracial marriages also and less learning Spanish even…

That you’d have many of the Latinos above identify as other races in the coming decades.

Not always white though.

Be it simply mixed race, black, Asian, white, etc.

Whoever their parents and grandparents are.

Though, as we see in the trends cited above, I suppose many would identify as white.

Many more Zimmermans with lighter skin tones and the same non-Latino sounding last name?

Perhaps.

Hopefully with less shootings.

Anyway, what else is there to say?

Honestly, I was surprised at how many Latinos identify as white.

I always knew that many Latinos would end up like the Italians or Irish because I have seen Latinos in small town Iowa who didn’t speak Spanish or straight up didn’t even identify with their Latino roots seemingly.

Not many to be fair because it wasn’t like my small town was full of Latinos anyhow.

But I didn’t know that already over 60% of them identify as white?

That was much higher than I expected.

Though I suppose that’s because, as I said, almost every Latino I knew in the US wasn’t white looking.

Which, in the coming decades, I do feel that’d be a requirement for any Latino to identify and be seen as white obviously.

As you actually white?

While many will procreate with white folks, as I said, others won’t.

Whoever it might be!

An Asian dude, black dude, Indian dude, etc.

Whoever really.

Still, the trends, as I said, seem to point to a “whitening of Latinos” in many ways and, much more strongly, a “stripping of Latino hood” for those who won’t have white offspring anyhow.

If we were to believe that statistic about each generation of Latinos identifying as less Latino anyway.

Anyhow, that’s all I got to say.

Nothing else comes to mind.

If you have any comments, drop them below in the comment section.

Was an interesting thing for me to look into so I’d appreciate any comments.

As I said, I’m not Latino and definitely not an expert on the Latino community in the US.

This was just simple research I did out of curiosity after reading a comment on my last article that made me curious about this subject.

Anyway, follow my Twitter here.

Thanks for reading.

Best regards,

Matt

14 comments

Dazza - November 13, 2021 Reply

The massive difference between mass European immigration and modern day Latin American immigration was that it ceased in 1965 and they became Anglicised – they stopped speaking their languages – German in St Louis, Italian dialects in New York, Swedish and Norwegian in Minnesota and became ‘American’ whereas Latin American immigration is ongoing and is never ever going to stop and the powers-that-be KNOW THIS (sorry but lack of italics…) so what this means is that FOB Latin communities will always exist in the way FOB German and Swedish communities died away. A rich, white, Latin American isn’t going to go to the midwest when they can just go to Miami where there is now a huge community catering to them – they don’t even have to speak English or learn it! Miami to Panama City is a couple of hours away, Miami to Bogota or Caracas is three hours away – they can buy a property there (in cash) and live a great life that is somewhat recognisable to them.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-36281648

Will Latinos ever become ‘white’ and the answer is no because some aren’t white and I would say a lot of them refuse to identify as such – you are always going to get weirdoes like Sammy Sosa but I think most Latinos in America would define themselves as the colour/racial background that they are – that and that racial hierachy exists in the Latin American world anyway. I was reading about some Venezuelan immigrant (which I now cannot find the link to such is my luck…) who was complaining the local rednecks around Miami saw him and his girlfriend as the same as their Nicaraguan colleagues working night shift in a factory despite the fact he had a law degree from Venezuela’s finest university (I didn’t read it in The Onion…) those barriers and differences exist in those communities also – you stated that in your previous piece of how an Afro-Cuban woman would be told by white Cubans that she wasn’t a ‘real’ Cuban – stupid nonsense of ignorant people but that kind of thing is probably a lot more widespread than it is in America I think.

There are lots of rich, white, Hispanic neighbourhoods in south Florida – my favourite example is Doral – 91% white and 85% Hispanic and as rich as fuck – Weston has similar numbers – I doubt there are many Dominican or Bolivian homeowners as there aren’t many rich, white Venezuelans or Argentinians living in Paterson in New Jersey (home to the largest Peruvian expat community in North America…) and of course, there are cultural differences between all these Latin American nations – sometimes language isn’t enough of a glue to bind such a diverse demographic like that together. One thing is for certain though, the Latin Americans are not going to stop coming any time soon. Legally or illegally – they will still make their way across the Rio Grande.

    Matt - November 13, 2021 Reply

    “The massive difference between mass European immigration and modern day Latin American immigration was that it ceased in 1965 and they became Anglicised – they stopped speaking their languages – German in St Louis, Italian dialects in New York, Swedish and Norwegian in Minnesota and became ‘American’ whereas Latin American immigration is ongoing and is never ever going to stop”

    That’s a fair point that you’ll always have more Latino immigrants adding to the community. While those ones and their kids and grandkids will identify as Latino (with many speaking Spanish and others not at all or not very well), the question will be what is down the road for them after a few more generations? Does the existence of a Mexican community in a area really mean that the fourth or fifth generation child of Mexican immigrants way back have any impact on that individual still connecting with his Mexican roots? Normally, I would assume so but, after writing this article, maybe not? Apparently the statistics out there indicate otherwise.

    “and the powers-that-be KNOW THIS”

    Outside of the Trump style populists, I would say that the powers that be want this. You have your more normal Republicans like Lindsey Graham who sometimes talks about protecting the border and stopping illegal immigrants. However, when action is on the table, he backs off. Take for example these comments he made when Trump was more serious about taking action on illegal immigrants and how that threatened the labor availability of the agricultural industry here.

    ““South Carolina’s number one industry is agriculture, and tourism is number two. If this proposal were to become law, it would be devastating to our state’s economy, which relies on this immigrant workforce,” he added.

    Outside of labor benefits that people on both sides of aisle see, you also have the political motivation on the left to be more appealing to immigrants given that their voters tend to be more diverse. Though, to be fair, there’s likely a strong difference between how someone more to the left like Bernie and someone like Biden would respond to the immigrant situation at the border.

    On top of all of that, you sometimes have these weird ideas put forth in the media (what I would call testing the waters) when it comes to immigration. One of them being that America needs to take in so many more immigrants that we literally have a billion people to compete with China. Here’s one such article among various other ones (including the idea even being talked about on CNN once).

    In short, while the US does try to enforce immigration measures for various reasons as any country would, I would argue that there are many benefits (political and economic) that some of the elites see when it comes to immigration.

    “A rich, white, Latin American isn’t going to go to the midwest when they can just go to Miami where there is now a huge community catering to them – they don’t even have to speak English or learn it!”

    Well, to be fair, I would take a guess in saying that the “rich, white Latin American” probably can speak English well enough if he came from a nice enough background to afford private schooling when he was young. Though maybe that depends on how old he is too. Younger folks more insistent on learning English and all that than older ones.

    But I am from the Midwest. I can tell you that we do have plenty of Latinos over there. It largely depends though on where you are specifically. A bigger city like Chicago will obviously be more relevant.

    Hell, there’s even this article here on “Chicago’s most powerful Latinos.”

    As you can see, there’s plenty of wealthy Latinos on that list (CEOs included). Many do look “whiter looking.” Not all.

    And I’m sure you can find wealthier Latinos in other areas of the Midwest (though Chicago is an obvious place to look).

    Even a more rural area like Iowa has had its “ok” share of Mexican immigrants specifically here.

    “Mexican immigrants arrived in Iowa during the 1880s to work in the state’s railroad yards and agricultural fields, picking tomatoes and beets. … More than 500 Mexicans lived in Iowa by 1910, and more than 2,500 lived in Iowa in 1920.

    Increased job stability enabled many immigrants to bring their families and to provide better housing and educational opportunities for their children. By 1930, nearly 4,300 ethnic Mexicans lived in Iowa. Non-unionized packinghouse, industrial and service jobs increased the internal diversity and population of Latinos as their share of the state’s total population grew from 0.6 percent (17,448) in 1970, to 1.2 percent (32,647) in 1990, and 2.8 percent (82,473) by 2000.”

    While that doesn’t sound like much, the presence of Latino immigrants can be noticeable in a small town environment. Right before I left the small town I lived in, we actually had funny enough an explosion of Mexican restaurants (like 5 or so literally all open up around the same time). Well, some have closed since then and others have stayed.

    As I said in the article, even the chick I took to prom had a dad who was literally born in Mexico.

    Regardless, the Midwest does have its share of Latino immigrants also. Not nearly as much as Miami though to be fair. However, in the coming decades, I guess the Midwest gets the last laugh when climate change worsens and Miami goes under water. Where will they all go then? According to this article, a lot more people are going to be migrating to the Midwest actually!

    “In his recent book Climatopolis – How Our Cities Will Thrive in a Hotter Future, Kahn argues that as the planet warms up, winters in cities in the Great Lakes region will become milder, while summers remain pleasant. Meanwhile, coastal and Southwestern metropolises like Miami, New York or Phoenix will face ever more frequent flooding and scorching heat.

    The Midwest will boom as industries and skilled workers relocate away from danger zones along the coasts, Kahn argues.”

    So we get the last laugh. We Midwesteners always get the last laugh. I’ll even do a multi-cultural laugh in English, Spanish and Brazilian Portuguese: Haha jeje kkkkk haha jejej kkkkk haha jeje kkkkk.

    “they can buy a property there (in cash) and live a great life that is somewhat recognisable to them.”

    For them life is recognizable. What about their bloodline four generations down?

    By then, the connection to Miami because it’s Latino influence might not be as strong for that individual four generations away.

    It goes both ways.

    If I were to have a kid in Mexico, that kid would likely have some semblance of American in him. Would definitely know what Iowa looks like eventually. I’d do my best to teach it English. Would show it movies, stand up comedies like George Carlin and other cool things from back home. However, it wouldn’t be entirely American, would it? Not if it’s raised in Mexico. Let’s go forward with that. That kid grows up and has a kid. I got a grandkid now. That grandkid maybe knows what Iowa looks like given I would want to introduce it to my sister and my parents (hopefully they’re still alive). The movies and other cultural things I like from back home are probably not reaching it’s eyes though. English? Probably but with an accent. By the time that kid has a kid, it won’t be anything like someone from the US.

    Of course, there’s a difference. We don’t have as many Americans living in Mexico. Though, we do have, from what I read here, there is a community of us in Mexico.

    “The reality has long been more nuanced, as more Americans are realising. The US State Department reckons 1.5m live south of the border, making them the largest group of immigrants in Mexico and the largest group of Americans outside the United States (Mexico counts fewer: around 800,000).

    In theory, I could raise the kid in a very Americanized community that is jam packed full of Americans everywhere and American culture all around. Maybe even a gated community of only Americans out there somewhere by Lake Chapala or somewhere like that. Similar to the rich Latino in Miami, it wouldn’t matter.

    Eventually, the generations pass. No matter how Latino you raise your kid in Miami or how gringo you raise them in Mexico, your future generations will not be like you. The cultural aspects of what we both grew up with (the rich Latino and me) will not be as easily seen in our future generations. The rich Latino maybe came from Barranquilla, Colombia. Will his grandkids even know Barranquilla? Wil they speak Spanish at all? Maybe with an accent at least? Have any similar interests in Colombian music or food or will they not?

    Perhaps the grandkid never had much exposure to that and definitely even less for whatever the kid the grandkid has someday. That child could be raised in Ohio by then as climate change has made Miami worse to live in. Let’s say that kid’s mother is not Latino and of a different race (black, asian, white, etc). That parent will obviously be introducing their culture to the child. As you said it yourself, it’s not so much a race thing but a cultural thing when it comes to identifying as Latino. Because Latinos can be of any race. But if said Latino child four generations away doesn’t speak Spanish at all, has never been to Latin America, doesn’t know the Latino immigrant that started their bloodline in the US decades ago, likes absolutely nothing from Latin America culturally and even has a non-Latino last name by that point…

    What’s the likelihood they’ll identify as Latino? Well, for the individual, I can’t say. But the statistics in the article make clear that it’s apparently around 50%. Of course, for the other 50%, I would also wonder how many in the family kept marrying another Latino before the 4th generation showed up? Not hard to see since most people marry someone like them (though not always). Therefore, keeping the culture alive to a degree (though, even then, probably not perfectly as it’s not hard to imagine said child doesn’t speak Spanish or not perfectly and maybe hasn’t even been to Latin America).

    So even while you’ll always have more Latino immigrants showing up, keep in mind also that the number is limited. We’re primarily talking about those in northern Central America and the Caribbean. When you take into the numbers of all of those, it’s maybe around 25 million? It’s not like what Europe is going to have to contend with given the entire continent of Africa right below them that is much more populous and is equally in a very fucked situation in the coming decades due to its extra exposure to the risks of climate change. The more interesting question then, for Europe especially, is how does that impact things like the European Union? When, if I remember right, the topic of “immigrants using the EU to get into England” was a selling point for Brexit (among others) here.

    How will the much stronger flood of immigrants then to Europe impact the stability of the European Union and will it encourage more right-wing leaders to rise up against it? I imagine both scenarios are more likely in the future if the past is any indication for predicting the future.

    Back to Latinos anyway, not all of those will get into the US anyhow. Many have stayed in Mexico and have even accepted that and gone forward with a new life there. You’ll have Latino immigration elsewhere in Latin America but in other directions. People in Nicaragua to Costa Rica, more Venezuelans to Colombia, more immigrants heading to Chile or Argentina, etc.

    Or, in Mexico’s case, more folks going to urban centers first like Mexico City with some heading to the US also.

    “Will Latinos ever become ‘white’ and the answer is no because some aren’t white and I would say a lot of them refuse to identify as such”

    Personally, I disagree but I guess I’d be repeating myself a bit.

    Before I wrote this article, I probably would have agreed with you.

    But I guess there’s two ways to look at this question. Does the Latino himself self-identify as white (which, as we have seen, one can identify as both white and Latino as shown in the article).

    Then also how does the rest of society see him? White and Latino? Just white?

    Well, as we know, plenty of Latinos do see themselves as both white and Latino. That is obviously different though from just identifying as white.

    Will said Latino then ever someday just identify as white and not at all Latino? That’s tough to say. Plenty of Americans to this day still identify with their Irish or Italian roots (no matter how weak their roots are if it was way back).

    But, as I said, I can’t really do anything except just cite statistics that’s the only way to get a macro look at this. As shown in the article, apparently the amount of Latinos who identify as Latino goes down with each generation. Now, to be fair, we have no idea what they identify as then by that point (fourth generation and onwards basically). It’s very unlikely all of them identify as white. Many will identify as white, many others will identify as black or Asian perhaps. Depends on who their ancestors were fucking and in what culture they were raised in going forward.

    If some random dude named John Zimmerman was born today with both parents being black or both parents being white and not at all raised in a Latino culture with no Spanish skills, does he identify as Latino even though a hundred years ago he had a grandma from Paraguay show up to the US? That’s on him. As I said, my dad has a book on how ancestry with photos showing some Irish dude on a farm before the family ever made it to the US. I don’t identify as Irish even though I did care to know my roots.

    At the end of the day, the same forces of interracial marriages, losing the language, moving away from a place like Miami to a lesser Latino influenced area, the culture your ancestors learned not being taught to you because of said interracial marriages and who your parents are and a loss of connection with the immigrant parent all play a role for anyone of any group.

    Of course, that also asks the question — will Americans ever see people who currently identify as Latino as white? If I had to guess, I’d say no. But, because of the political element to this discussed before, I could see it. Maybe said white Latino never gets 100% of the privileges of being white when he puts his last name on a resume but he’ll always be seen as white passing at least in public from what I could imagine. I mean — if the dude looks white, he looks white. It’s like with you for example. In your conversation with that American you mentioned in that previous comment, your self-identification as mixed race was weird or new to that guy because he told you that you would be white in the US. Personally, I half agree with him. I’ve never seen you in real life but you do look white in your photo. I would assume you were white in real life if I saw you in public. The question is how does a Latino sounding first or last name impact you in other ways (like a job application)?

    So, in that sense, I guess you can say that said white Latino might be “kinda white” nowadays. Like 90% white where he’s treated as white in most scenarios except a few? Or whatever number you want to put on that.

    Another thing I would question is also — if, after enough generations, we have enough white passing individuals with Hispanic sounding last names who don’t identify as Latino, don’t speak Spanish and nothing else like that — does that normalize Hispanic sounding last names where they aren’t as discriminated against on a job application? I’m not sure but I’ll leave that question out there.

    “I think most Latinos in America would define themselves as the colour/racial background that they are”

    “I was reading about some Venezuelan immigrant (which I now cannot find the link to such is my luck…) who was complaining the local rednecks around Miami saw him and his girlfriend as the same as their Nicaraguan colleagues working night shift in a factory”

    True, you got people like that. There’s also a difference in how city folk see things and “rednecks” see things. I’m assuming said rednecks are from a small town or rural area originally. Correct me if I’m wrong but that’s how it comes across with that word.

    I would ask though if said Venezuelan had an accent or anything that made him stick out more as an immigrant? I imagine that has a role in how he is seen. And, as I said, will his descendants down the road be seen as such also? By the 5th generation even, they instead might be seen as just entirely white, black, etc.

    Of course, by then in about 100 years after America gets so many more immigrants, I would also ask how has America changed by then politically and demographically? Do the political and demographic changes occur to which white Latinos are seen as “white adjacent” and the rest of America finally is no longer ignorant to the idea of “white Latinos” existing. As I said, even I didn’t think Latinos were ever white until I left Iowa as a teenager.

    With so many more Latinos living here by then and many with maybe a Latino sounding last name but white looking, without an accent and not having any cultural connection to the heritage of their grandparents, how does that change the perception of non-Latinos of every race in the US?

    I couldn’t tell you. I can easily see it going both ways (them being seen as white and others not being seen as white). If Republicans do better with getting more Latinos to support them, I can see a narrative pushed that they are “white adjacent” in someways and seen as such by more people in the US. Take Ted Cruz. Here’s a video of him. I’ve heard people say he isn’t “really Latino.” Is he “really Latino?” He has the last name Cruz. But I’d imagine his political stance influences how some see him. Among other things like being very white looking that has an impact on how he is seen.

    For another interesting example, take Nick Fuentes. Nick Fuentes is often characterized as being part of the “alt-right.” With a last name like Fuentes and even, by his own admission, how he is 25% Mexican, he doesn’t identify as Latino. I have seen other people who don’t like him characterize him as being white once in a blue moon during discussions about him and he doesn’t see himself as Latino either apparently according to this source here.

    “Increasingly, Latinos are identifying racially as white. In fact, more than half did so in the 2010 U.S. Census. A March 2016 report from Pew Research Center found that 39% of Afro-Latinos also identified “as white alone or white in combination with another race.” With a current population of around 58 million, Latinos make up the second-largest ethnic group in the U.S., just behind whites.

    Another Pew Research Center study from December found that 59% of U.S. adults with Latino heritage who identify as white believe others see them as white, too. Over time, the study found, descendants of Latino immigrants stop identifying with their countries of origin and consider themselves more and more American.

    Fuentes — who says he’s about 25% Mexican — identifies as white, not Latino. In an interview with Mic, Fuentes also said he believes multiculturalism threatens white national identity. Monzon, meanwhile, has called for South Florida to secede from the U.S. His ties to the League of the South are generational, as his parents have also protested with the white supremacist fringe group, according to the SPLC. In a Facebook profile the SPLC has attributed to him, Monzon goes by “Ambrosio Gonzalez,” the name of a Cuban general who fought as a Confederate colonel in the Civil War.”

    What would be interesting to see though would be any left-leaning Latinos who don’t identify as Latino and instead as another race (white, black, asian, etc). I doubt it’s just a right-wing thing though I do believe some folks out there on the left have a tendency to label right-leaning Latinos with white skin as just white and not Latino. Though that doesn’t always happen to be fair. I don’t think I’ve heard anyone doubt Marco Rubio as a Latino.

    Part of this is similar anyhow to how some folks like to put into question just how “black” someone is if they don’t vote Democrat. Take the negative comments thrown towards the Hodge Twins for example on Youtube. Though that’s a little bit different since nobody truely doubts that they aren’t black. Maybe doubting someone’s non-white background (for political reasons or not) is easier when they legit look white.

    “and of course, there are cultural differences between all these Latin American nations – sometimes language isn’t enough of a glue to bind such a diverse demographic like that together.”

    You see the same thing politically. Republicans tend to do better with certain crowds of Latinos like Cubans, Colombians, Venezuelans, etc. Democrats do better with Mexicans, Central Americans, etc.

    Even within the Democratic party, folks like Bernie did much better with those of Mexican or Central American descent while getting DESTROYED in the polling in Florida for the DNC contest against Biden in 2020.

    “One thing is for certain though, the Latin Americans are not going to stop coming any time soon. Legally or illegally – they will still make their way across the Rio Grande.”

    With the way politics is shifting, you’ll probably have more certain shades of right wing and left wing candidates (Trump and Bernie style) in the future. Under such a scenario, you’ll have a government that is either much more open to taking these folks or much more opposed to it. Under the former, many will definitely get through. Under the latter, a smaller percentage will (and, if they have luck, can get a Sanctuary city before getting deported) while others will either get deported by Mexico first as the US has been using Mexico to do its bidding on that as you can read here.

    “Mexico deported more Central Americans than the US in 2018.” And in 2021? As I wrote elsewhere, Mexico has absolutely been doubling down on the deportations to the point that they are even going after us gringos! Excuse me, I must hide under the bed. I hear a knock on the door!

    Anyway, thanks for the comment! Sorry for any repetition in what I was saying. Appreciate the other perspective. Hope everything is going well in China.

Dazza - November 16, 2021 Reply

If we take Miami, their evolution into a Spanish speaking city and a Latin American cultural hub has been a very recent one, up until the early 1970’s it was a proper Southern, Confederate city with Jim Crow laws – there was hardly any Spanish there up until the early 1960’s when Cuban refugees settled in the city escaping Castro – so, the future bodes well for the Spanish language rather than not in Miami and southern Florida – Spanish language speakers are well catered to around there so why would Spanish die out there? The reason language use dies out in immigrant communities is because the host nation discourages its use and encourages English – the Spanish language has grown in the United States as have Hispanic/Latino demographic.

I also agree (somewhat…) with my friend/work colleague with the caveat that colour (especially in the case of Latino’s) is contextual – in scummy town in the north of England where there is a large, white, indigenous population where being white means looking like them – then I am not white – when I was in Peru, I was seen as white and I would say there I am white and middle class/upper middle class (with the privileges that go with it…) the United States? I have to say I wouldn’t say I was white there but other people might! I think I would be ‘whiter’ there than I am back where I am from in the UK.

As for Latino people not subscribing to Latino culture or Spanish – amongst my siblings, I am the only one of them that has any Spanish ability – my youngest sister has none and is totally white looking – I don’t know if that has anything to do with it but I think that probably happens anyway even within families that are second generation like ours is, some will take an interest in their parents culture and some won’t – I think with my sister it just doesn’t pertain to her in any real life aspect so she doesn’t care – she gets annoyed when I speak to her about getting her second passport – I just think she thinks ‘what’s the point’ she has married a local guy, has a good job, is generally happy and successful with her life and doesn’t see a link with Latin America even though she does have a profound link – so, it’s totally realistic that the further back ones Latino roots go, the further away that identity goes for some.

The one thing that will keep Spanish/Latino culture and identity alive is the language because that is based around the language and as there are already centres of Spanish that exist and that attract Latin American immigrants in big numbers then I don’t think it will die out soon – sure, Latinos who marry out and have kids who are dual-culture kids will pick one culture over another or try to juggle both but I think many Latinos marry amongst other Latinos and then the culture will continue. I think I read somewhere that 90% of Miamians of Hispanic heritage think it is important that their kids learn and speak Spanish and that they speak Spanish in the home. It isn’t just Miami, I am sure there are parts of Texas, California etc where Spanish is a living and working language – as long as these places exist and thrive – Spanish won’t be going anywhere.

    Matt - November 16, 2021 Reply

    Well, in the same way Miami changed very quickly in that timeline, the culture of the area can also change very quickly again into something else. Take the Twin Cities of Minnesota that I’ve heard folks from there talking about how it has recently become a hub of Somali immigrants as you can read here. Of course, Miami isn’t the Twin Cities. I’d agree anyway with your previous comment on the other article (I think it was Shades of Latinos one?) that the US has gone through immense demographic changes recently. Time will tell how Miami will change in the coming decades.

    At any rate, I don’t disagree with much of what you said. Regardless of the degree to which descendants of Latinos choose not to engage in Latin culture or even identify as Latino, you’ll always have Spanish relevance in the US. After all, it’s the second largest Spanish speaking country of the world as you can read here. There’ll always be more Latino immigrants. Latin America will always be important to the US and Spanish will always be a very obvious choice as a language to learn for Latinos and non-Latinos in the US (many who have to at least learn the basics of a second language for high school and college).

    Having said that, I think we both agree anyhow that “Latin culture” does disappear over generations in the descendants of Latinos in the US but I guess we’ll differ as to how strong that trend will be.

    Of course, you brought up Southern Florida, Texas, California, etc. However, there’s a vast space of land between those areas where you don’t have as strong of a Latino culture locally where plenty of Latinos live in also. I agree anyhow that having a strong local Latino culture will help encourage some Latinos to not abandon the culture and most people do marry within their own group.

    Having said that, is there any broad data we can look at to give us a sense of the trends? We can all discuss the impact certain elements like a local Latin culture would have or bring up personal examples like with yourself and your sister or the few Latinos I know in the US (some who don’t speak Spanish at all, others who do).

    But while personal examples have their relevance to giving context to trends, they don’t necessarily represent the broader trends that are happening (since anomalies could happen for example).

    So, at least with the few statistics brought up already, you supposedly have around 50% of Latinos by the fourth generation who simply do not identify as Latino. To be fair, that doesn’t mean they don’t know any Spanish. As I said, high schools and colleges greatly encourage or require even learning a second language to graduate. Spanish is an obvious choice for native English speakers who are Latino or not.

    And, being honest, I have no idea how many Latinos “lose their Spanish” after each generation. So is there any data to work with to get a sense of broader trends?

    Well, there’s a few sources I’ve found. I’ll try to rely mostly on the Pew Research Center because, despite the issues some had about their skin color survey, they are actually a pretty legit source for large scale trends in the US.

    First, we have this source here from them discussing the decline of Spanish in the home among each generation.

    “Overall, 85% of Latino parents say they speak Spanish to their children, according to the Center’s 2015 National Survey of Latinos. Among immigrant parents, nearly all (97%) say they do this. But the share drops to 71% among U.S.-born second-generation Latino parents (those with at least one immigrant parent). And the share falls to just 49% among third or higher generation Latino parents – those born in the U.S. to U.S.-born parents.”

    “The Center’s 2015 survey findings also show that Spanish dominance is on the decline among second- and third-generation Latinos. While 61% of Hispanic immigrants in the U.S. are Spanish dominant (and another 32% are bilingual), the share who are Spanish dominant drops to 6% among second-generation Hispanics and to less than 1% among third or higher generation Hispanics. Meanwhile, the share of Hispanics who are English dominant rises across generations: Just 7% of immigrant Hispanics are English dominant, a share that rises to 75% among third-generation Hispanics.”

    Without question, I think having any greater idea as to how strong Spanish is retained over the generations depends a lot more on the will of the parents to teach the kids Spanish than having Pitbull on the radio (though both helps, I imagine even though he’s on the radio also in small town Iowa if you pick the right station).

    Then we have this source here from Pew.

    “The Center’s 2015 survey findings also show that Spanish dominance is on the decline among second- and third-generation Latinos. While 61% of Hispanic immigrants in the U.S. are Spanish dominant (and another 32% are bilingual), the share who are Spanish dominant drops to 6% among second-generation Hispanics and to less than 1% among third or higher generation Hispanics. Meanwhile, the share of Hispanics who are English dominant rises across generations: Just 7% of immigrant Hispanics are English dominant, a share that rises to 75% among third-generation Hispanics.”

    Then we have this interesting source from the New York Times citing a Pew study here.

    ““If one or both of your parents are immigrants, there’s a good chance you’ll be bilingual,” Krogstad said. A different Pew analysis found that about half of second-generation self-identified Latinosare bilingual. But language abilities diminish across generations: Among third-generation or higher self-identified Latinos, fewer than a quarter are bilingual.”

    All around, there’s no doubt that Spanish has a future in the US. Without question. It has its place, it always had its place and it’ll always have a place.

    And, to be fair, I’m sure the number of Latinos who speak Spanish and who teach their kids Spanish is higher in areas with more Latinos like Miami.

    But, across the board, the statistics regarding how many Latinos identify as Latino and how many speak Spanish are consistent: they go down noticeably with each generation (which, to be fair, I have no idea why this is the case. I imagine multiracial marriages play a role but I have no idea what else could be driving these statistical trends).

    But, for the reasons we have already discussed (such as more Latinos immigrating, the proximity of Latin America to the US, Americans at least having to take a stab at a second language in school, some Latinos, even after many generations, still holding onto the heritage, etc), there will obviously always be a place for Spanish in the US.

    At any rate, you know obviously I’m not Latino. The only personal experience I have with US Latinos on this matter are the few I knew in Iowa and Ohio (both places not obviously not Latino heavy like Miami). In both places, I’ve met both examples. Some Latinos who hold onto their heritage like a chick named Rosa in college to the chick I took to prom that didn’t speak a lick of Spanish. But that’s as far as my personal experience with this goes because I’m not Latino and have never gone around asking US Latinos how their Spanish is lately.

    Anyway, nothing else to add for the moment. Thanks for the discussion!

    I’ve been too busy apartment hunting these days so I haven’t gotten around to writing. So I appreciate it. Take care.

Dazza - November 16, 2021 Reply

Well, what’s Miami going to change into from a Spanish speaking hub? And though you’re right – there will be parts of the US (most of the US) where the Spanish language is somewhat dormant and Latinos there might not learn or speak Spanish, there will always be parts that will and Spanish as a language has grown massively since the 1965 immigration act was introduced (as has Latino immigration).

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK19901/

Here is an interesting document which shows the states where most Latino immigrants live – it’s basically five states – NJ, NY, Florida, California and Texas (if you include Illinois as the Mexicans third choice, six).

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK19901/table/a2000e49dttt00019/?report=objectonly

https://usafacts.org/articles/demographics-hispanic-americans/

47 million more Hispanics in the US than there were in 1980.

That is a massive demographic shift. Especially when you think there were only SIX MILLION Latino/Hispanic people in the country in 1960.

https://nps.gov/history/heritageinitiatives/latino/latinothemestudy/immigration.htm

The one thing where we do disagree is ‘Latin Culture’ disappears, it will be kept alive in certain parts of the country. Some Latinos will lose their culture and the language, especially if they marry outside of the culture or go and live in other parts where Spanish language/Latin culture isn’t so prevalent and some won’t – it will always be easier to be an unreconstructed Latino in Miami than it will in Fort Wayne Indiana but as the United States government and political policy has been very lenient towards the Spanish language in certain parts of the country and it will stay alive in those parts.

https://www.goarmy.com/espanol.html

How long have the US Army have been recruiting in Spanish? That is amazing but it shows how far Spanish has come in such a short time and how US administrations of all hues support it.

Of course, you might be right and I am wrong and Latino culture and Spanish language (which are linked) disappears over a certain timeframe but I just don’t think it will – like French in Quebec where it sits alongside English (legally and culturally…) some parts of the US will have a mixture of Spanish and English and it might become somewhat Anglicised, a somewhat pan-Latin American culture which is also uniquely American will exist but most of the country won’t have that.

But the growth or Spanish and Latino culture – though it has always been there, has grown massively in just 50-60 years and the US now has a bigger Hispanic/Latino population than any country other than Mexico at 61 million (from 6 million in 1960 and growing…). Hope you are well and good luck with the apartment search!

NB: US Government figures… Latino/Hispanic population in US to grow by 111 million by 2060… some of them might be your kids!

https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/2018/comm/hispanic-projected-pop.html

    Matt - November 16, 2021 Reply

    “The one thing where we do disagree is ‘Latin Culture’ disappears, it will be kept alive in certain parts of the country. Some Latinos will lose their culture and the language, especially if they marry outside of the culture or go and live in other parts where Spanish language/Latin culture isn’t so prevalent and some won’t – it will always be easier to be an unreconstructed Latino in Miami than it will in Fort Wayne Indiana but as the United States government and political policy has been very lenient towards the Spanish language in certain parts of the country and it will stay alive in those parts.”

    I don’t think there’s any disagreement on this end. About everything you say is what I agree with. There definitely has been a massive demographic and cultural change (though I would slightly adjust the emphasis away from it being entirely Latin American and more worldly given the US has taken in immigrants from all over the world). And I absolutely agree that a Latino (or anyone of any cultural or racial background) will retain more of that background of their parents if they live in a community with a supportive structure of similar individuals. That’s also why when you see plenty of “expats” and “immigrants” gravitating towards mostly or only hanging out with people like them in whatever country they moved to. Be it the Pakistani who immigrated to the US primarily hanging out with Pakistanis (a roommate of mine in college) or the American expat who does the same in Mexico.

    “How long have the US Army have been recruiting in Spanish? That is amazing but it shows how far Spanish has come in such a short time and how US administrations of all hues support it.”

    Good point. Or maybe a healthcare job translating Spanish in Iowa. It definitely is one example of Spanish taking a more active role in society.

    “Of course, you might be right and I am wrong and Latino culture and Spanish language (which are linked) disappears over a certain timeframe but I just don’t think it will.”

    I don’t think we disagree on the point but we actually just disagree on the extent to which it disappears. Correct me if I’m wrong but I think you see me as saying “Latin culture/Spanish” will disappear like Irish culture did in the US (outside of St. Patricks Day). I don’t necessarily believe that. Granted, on a long enough time scale, maybe that does happen. But when? In 500 years? Well, it’s worthless trying to discuss a time scale like that with this subject. And, to be fair, I guess the same points (both in favor and against) could be made about any changes to Miami’s culture. There’s a lot we don’t know anyhow with cultural changes in the short term and long term outside of current trends.

    And I think that’s where we disagree, as I said, is the extent to which Latino culture fades. Not fade entirely. Only fade to whatever degree. You said it yourself in this quote here.

    “I have read the argument between Hispanic/Latinos who can’t speak Spanish against the ones who can – can they call themselves Hispanic if they can’t speak Spanish all that well/not at all? But the whitening of Hispanics in the US is happening now and well into the future – with the Venezuelans and Cubans of Doral who live in homes with a price tag that would make Rockefeller cough – they have the trappings of ‘white privilege’ that’s for sure.”

    And, to be fair, I truly don’t know the extent to which Latin culture fades and how much it remains.

    We agree that anybody of any culture is more likely to retain their culture if they live in a community supportive of it. Absolutely true.

    But we also know some people no longer identify with that culture. As you said it yourself, it’s more of a culture thing than a race thing. A Latino can be any skin color but does he still identify as Latino?

    So, if we were to take that 111 million number, I would ask how many of those Latinos are descendants of Latinos currently in the US and how many are newly arrived immigrants?

    At the end of that, that’s the first most important question. Because, as the data shows, identity with being Latino and speaking Spanish goes down noticably after each generation. And, on top of that, the US population is predicted to grow from 326 to 404 million by 2060 according to the same Census US Gov source here (assuming we don’t have a nuclear war with China or Russia by then).

    Of course, if were to assume that the Census did both of those numbers together, that would imply an increase of the Latino population on a per capita basis of the total US population. That would obviously keep Spanish and Latino culture alive regardless of how many said Latinos in that group either no longer identify as Latino or do not speak Spanish at all.

    And, being honest with you, I don’t have any idea how many of those extra 111 million people do either of the two above. Statistics can change and we don’t know how many of those 111 million would be second-generation, third-generation, fourth-generation and onward. If one of those 111 million happened to be my kid, I can tell you right now I damn well would want the kid to be bilingual. But, assuming the kid was born in 9 months (meaning if Jovi actually went with it and assuming the DNA test showed it was mine), it could technically have its own kid by 2045 let’s say. Give it another 15 years on top of that until 2060. What’s the likelihood the grandkid speaks Spanish? Well, they might both contribute to the 111 million number but it’s possible (though, looking at the statistics, I don’t think it’s likely until the generation after the grandkid) that one of them (grandkid most likely) doesn’t speak Spanish.

    Anyway, that’s all something to keep in mind with the 111 million number. The point being that, as we know, there’s a lot of diversity among Latinos (in terms of race, nationality, generation status, etc) that makes that number complicated.

    Of course, we’ll have many in that 111 number who are actual immigrants and second-generation immigrants.

    And, as the sources from before show, a lot also rides on how many immigrants and children of immigrants choose to teach their kids Spanish and their roots. Time will tell how that plays out but current trends don’t show it very positively by the third and fourth generation.

    Either way, thanks for the sources! I checked them out. As I said, I think really we just disagree slightly to the extent at which how much of Latino culture fades (meaning how many descendants don’t adopt it), but we both agree that Spanish and Latin culture is definitely here to stay for a long term (at least 300 years).

    To be fair, I’ll end it with this interesting quote that sums up this topic well from Pew Research here.

    “As the share of Hispanics who speak Spanish falls, the share that speaks only English at home is expected to rise. About a third (34%) of Hispanics will speak only English at home by 2020, up from 25% in 2010, according to Ortman and Shin.

    The story of the Spanish language in the U.S. is still unfolding. Whether it follows the same pattern of decline in use as other non-English languages, such as Italian, German or Polish, remains to be seen. (The number of Italian, German and Polish speakers in the U.S. declined 55.2%, 32.7% and 25.9% between 1980 and 2010, even though the number of Americans who trace their ancestry to Germany, Poland or Italy grew over the same period.)

    Nonetheless, the path that Spanish takes could be different. A 2012 Pew Research Hispanic Trends Project report showed 95% of Hispanic adults—including those born in the U.S.—said it is important that future generations of Hispanic speak Spanish. And today’s young Hispanics are more likely than their parents to say they hear messages about the importance of speaking Spanish. But among Hispanics, use of English when consuming news media, television entertainment, music or speaking it is on the rise.”

    Though, in responding to that quote, I would say there’s a difference between syaing something is important (speak Spanish) and actually teaching them Spanish. Actually getting the kids to want to learn Spanish and putting in the effort in another beast than just saying “it’s important to do.” Either way, I’ll leave it at that.

    Thanks again for your perspective!

Dazza - November 16, 2021 Reply

Where you quoted me has nothing to do with what Latino culture and what parts of Latino culture are used by the likes of Kyle Rittenhouse or George Zimmerman or their use of Spanish because I don’t know if they do or they don’t – this is just how they’re perceived by others as white just on a very superficial level (rather than if Latino culture/Spanish language will decrease/disappear). Both Zimmerman and Rittenhouse may (or may not…) be able to speak Spanish or have Latino culture in their lives but both times they had to make that distinction they they are Latino, there are obviously white people who are Latino and because of the widening demogrpahics of Hispanic immigration into the United States (rich Venezuelans in Doral, Argentinians in Surfside etc rather than rural Mexican immigrants coming through the Rio Grande working manual labour which is how a lot of people would picture ‘Hispanic immigration’).

So, basically I thought I would explain that distinction – like my friend who said ‘in America I would be just be a white guy’ it isn’t how I see myself though others might see it that way depending who they are and where they’re from and where I am as well if I agree with them. I can’t stop people making their assumptions but the whitening of Latino immigration is because many more are coming from all kinds of racial demographics that exist in Latin America (as well as marrying and having children out of the culture where they can pass as ‘white’) – which of course is very multi-racial and white people live there and always have since colonisation.

    Matt - November 16, 2021 Reply

    Thanks for the reply.

    Then I misunderstood what you were aiming at. The quote “the whitening of US Hispanics” comes right after the question of “can Latihnos call themselves Hispanics if they don’t speak Spanish?” Sounded like you switched to that aspect of Latino culture to me in the context of that paragraph and that does have to do with Latino culture. It literally discusses the topic we are discussing now only from a different angle. “Is there a whitening of Latinos?” “Can Latinos call themselves Latino if they don’t speak Spanish?” But it’s your quote, and if you meant to say something else, I’ll leave it at that and concede that I misunderstood what you intended to say.

    But going forward anyhow with your intention of what you intended to state (assuming I get you right here).

    “what parts of Latino culture are used by the likes of Kyle Rittenhouse or George Zimmerman or their use of Spanish because I don’t know if they do or they don’t – this is just how they’re perceived by others as white just on a very superficial level (rather than if Latino culture/Spanish language will decrease/disappear). Both Zimmerman and Rittenhouse may (or may not…) be able to speak Spanish or have Latino culture in their lives but both times they had to make that distinction they they are Latino, there are obviously white people who are Latino and because of the widening demogrpahics of Hispanic immigration into the United States (rich Venezuelans in Doral, Argentinians in Surfside etc rather than rural Mexican immigrants coming through the Rio Grande working manual labour which is how a lot of people would picture ‘Hispanic immigration’).”

    I would add a few things here.

    First, I’m not entirely sure how much Kyle Rittenhouse truly believed himself to be Hispanic or Latino. It’s not too important I suppose but the only sources I could find on the topic were not very well known and claimed that he identified as such with the police one time for a violation. I couldn’t verify how true that was though and it was news to me that he ever identified as such. If he did, I think it would go more to the claim that, yes, Latino culture can disappear in individuals. But it’d also be a question as to if he truly believes it himself.

    And you’ve referenced this a few times already. Be it in regards to your siblings or your admission of some Latinos simply losing their connection to Latino culture and/or Spanish over generations.

    And, when it comes to Zimmerman, in one of the articles I published, it’s clear the dude wants to be seen as Latino and dislikes it when people assume otherwise because of his last name. You could argue that’s an example of someone trying to hold onto their heritage. You could argue other things also (especially when you begin wondering why would the media try to characterize him as white?). Or how, given he doesn’t have a Latino sounding last name, is that an example of “Latino culture” disappearing?” Then he has a kid and does that kid speak Spanish? Identify as Latino? We wouldn’t know until it happens. And the individual is an individual. We can only look at statistics anyway to determine the probability and, depending on the generation, it’s more or less likely over time (but everyone is different).

    “So, basically I thought I would explain that distinction – like my friend who said ‘in America I would be just be a white guy’ it isn’t how I see myself though others might see it that way depending who they are and where they’re from and where I am as well if I agree with them.”

    True but also it depends on the circumstances. You do look white in your photos (and white Latinos do exist obviously). If some random person saw you in the street without knowing anything about you, they might assume “white person.” I would say though they are being a dick if they denied you were ever Latino when you clarified your background in whatever conversation where that took place. Though, as you hinted at in another comment, how people see other people depends also wildly on the environment they are in (such as how do people see you in where you were born versus Peru versus Miami versus Columbus versus Gary, Indiana).

    ” but the whitening of Latino immigration is because many more are coming from all kinds of racial demographics that exist in Latin America (as well as marrying and having children out of the culture where they can pass as ‘white’) – which of course is very multi-racial and white people live there and always have since colonisation.”

    So you do agree there is a whitening? Well, to be fair (and this is a self-criticism of my own title of article that might be seen as more controversial of some), might be better phrased as “fading of Latinoness?”

    However one would phrase it.

    But, as I said, we agree on much of it from my perspective outside of the extent to which it is happening. Your quote definitely came across as such (among other ones like your sister not learning Spanish and other comments).

    Either way, you brought up a solid point there — “many more are coming from all kinds of racial demographics that exist in Latin America.”

    That’s something to consider too that hasn’t been brought up yet — how many Latinos coming here were already white or white passing to begin with?

    Or how many refuse to recognize their multi-racialness? For example, in a previous comment, I mentioned the Nick Fuentes scenario and there was this quote here.

    ““Increasingly, Latinos are identifying racially as white. In fact, more than half did so in the 2010 U.S. Census. A March 2016 report from Pew Research Center found that 39% of Afro-Latinos also identified “as white alone or white in combination with another race.” With a current population of around 58 million, Latinos make up the second-largest ethnic group in the U.S., just behind whites.”

    Reminds me of Dominicans who refuse to identify as black.

    Which, in turn, should be asked how does that impact statistics. Similar to when people asked “did Latinos on that Pew Skin Color Survey lie about what shade they were?”

    Something to consider also in all fairness.

    Though, on that note, if someone was lying about their skin color, does that mean they want to be less Latino? Not teach their kids Spanish? I don’t know. You hear about indigenous folks in Latin America doing the same (some of them).

    Finally, I just want to clarify again that I’m not claiming that literally all of Latino culture or Spanish language will disappear from the US within a long enough time line to discuss.

    Only that I think that, according to the macro data we have, it’s quite clear it is “fading” but obviously would never disappear or even become irrelevant. Of course, we don’t know how things will change going forward. Like you bring up Miami. I would ask how many residents of Miami predicted the huge cultural change before it happened less than a century ago. Probably not many. So life leaves us surprises but it’s pointless to predict them without any macro evidence.

Dazza - November 16, 2021 Reply

To answer your question, Latino culture will disappear in some Latinos (plural) like my sister – which I brought up because you have a salient point – not every Latino/a is going to be interested in preserving the culture if they don’t see a real world use to it in practical daily life – so some Latinos are going to pursue their life in the Anglo, English speaking world – I’ll send you a picture of my sister in an email, she is pretty much a white person so I suppose she is a real world example that I know very well who has ‘whitened’ (so to speak because she was brought up in England..) so of course, the phenomenon exists.

The question is a rhetorical one (can one be Hispanic if one cannot speak Spanish) and I think you can but there are others who think you can’t be – there are a lot of posts online about it and I remember reading one post and there was a back and forth between Latinos who were on both side of the fence but the ones who thought you can’t be Latino if you can’t speak Spanish are probably more on your wavelength that Latino culture is ‘whitening’ because obviously, there is a big percentage of second generation Latinos who cannot speak Spanish, can speak some Spanish or they use English more than they use Spanish… who knows – I can imagine that is the reality if you live in most of the United States and not Texas etc, but my views on Hispanic/Latino immigration whitening is because there is a wider demographic coming to The States which includes lots of white Hispanics (my favourite are the Venezuelans of Doral…) so – the actual demographic is not only getting bigger and more numerous but there seems to be a wider representation. So it could be seen as ‘whitening’ on a visual basis based on the numbers now coming.

https://www.vecteezy.com/vector-art/98582-hispanic-population-in-usa

http://atypicalfamilia.com/non-spanish-speaking-latinos/ (Good post about this subject, some people can be judgmental assholes…)

This is an interesting map – there is a big difference between Texas and your home state of Iowa – 7% isn’t shabby but it would be real easy not to speak Spanish or need to learn it if you don’t want to which is why you’re good for a job when you go home but in Texas it’s organic and an important part of their society. So I suppose if you are Mexican and living in Iowa where there is a small minority of Hispanics and you marry a local girl and have kids – would you teach your kids Spanish? It’s a hard endeavour anyway – just getting them to fucking behave is hard enough! So maybe not! I suppose that’s where the whitening is happening – I wouldn’t argue with that Latinos in places like Iowa or Michigan or North Dakota – you will probably take the path of least resistance and speak English and raise your kids in English. In Texas – maybe more is at stake, especially if you marry someone from your community and the part of your little world is full of people who look like you and speak Spanish (I am sure there are a fair few places like that…)

As for the majority of Latinos identifying themselves as ‘white’ in these polls. I find strange to be honest – I would like to see some more in-depth rationale behind the pollsters self-identifying – what they look like and why do they think they’re white? I have seen those figures also and I think it’s a bit high but who knows where they’re polling and who? Dominicans who refuse to identify themselves as black – have you read the excellent book ‘Down These Mean Streets’ by Piri Thomas – it’s about a Puerto Rican/Cuban growing up in 1950’s New York where he and his family refuse to acknowledge they’re black or have black/African blood. As with Sammy Sosa – that seems to be prevalent today – a shame really.

    Matt - November 16, 2021 Reply

    ” not every Latino/a is going to be interested in preserving the culture if they don’t see a real world use to it in practical daily life”

    Yeah, and as I was saying, given that Latino isn’t a race but a culture (however one defines it given the vast amount of nationalities), there’s no shortage of those who will not identify with being Latino (among many others who will). Everyone is different.

    “The question is a rhetorical one (can one be Hispanic if one cannot speak Spanish)”

    Honestly, I thought about writing an article on this over the last few days but I don’t care enough about the subject. My response would’ve been “eh, maybe not but if they identify as Latino but can’t speak Spanish, who cares?”

    First, I’m not Latino. So it’d be weird for me to go around judging people going “are YOU Latino enough?!? Tell me how to properly use the future and past tense of Spanish grammar.” It’d be stupid.

    Second, you do have some Latinos who simply never learned Spanish growing up (at least not perfectly) but want to identify with their roots. You can’t blame someone for not learning the language perfectly growing up. I’d argue that’s more on the parents (though I can be forgiving on them too because I never tried to teach another language). Either way, it requires understanding.

    Third, I do get some of the logic behind those who say this though. IF we were to extend it, could it be considered affirmative? For example, let’s go back to the example I brought up in the first comment way above. We got a random dude of whatever race (white, Asian, black, etc) who doesn’t speak a lick of Spanish, whose name is John Zimmerman (not very Latino sounding), has never been to Latin America, has no interest in Latin America culturally and whose parents were not born in Latin America (and they also fit the description above). Then said John Zimmerman wants to reconnect with his roots and identify as Latino. Is he Latino? I wouldn’t be a dick to say to him “you ain’t Latino” because it’s not my issue, I wouldn’t care enough and I’m not looking to bring people down.

    But, if you forced me to answer honestly, is he Latino? If I was forced an answer, I would say no (under those very specific circumstances that, if we’re being honest, many future descendants of Latinos will be born with). IF you look at the statistics (how many don’t learn Spanish, how many don’t identify as Latino, how 15% of marriages in the US are interracial as you can see here).

    But, as I said, it’s not my issue. And, if said Latino does have much of the above but happens to be weak in Spanish, fair enough. Again, I’m not in the business of blessing “Latino points” to determine who is Latino enough and my Spanish definitely is not perfect.

    “but the ones who thought you can’t be Latino if you can’t speak Spanish are probably more on your wavelength that Latino culture is ‘whitening’ because obviously, there is a big percentage of second generation Latinos who cannot speak Spanish, can speak some Spanish or they use English more than they use Spanish”

    Honestly, I would say the biggest evidence of “whitening” (though, as I said in a previous comment, a better term is needed because not all identify as white) is the fact that, statistically speaking, a large amount of Latinos do stop identifying as Latino after a certain amount of generations that have passed. Which, as I said, doesn’t mean Latino culture literally dies away in the US. You’ll always have those who continue to identify as Latino and more Latino immigrants coming in.

    But what else would be the strongest evidence of such? If a lot of Latinos (not necessarily even a majority though I guess 50% do after the 4th generation) don’t identify as Latino by that point in time, what else is that? Again, the term “whitening” is a bit misleading because, even though many do identify as white and not Latino by that point, many others identify as other races instead.

    But it still happens and is happening now.

    “I can imagine that is the reality if you live in most of the United States and not Texas etc,”

    I definitely agree with you there. Though I’m not Latino myself, I always had the impression certain parts of the US can be more hostile to Latinos than others. Like the girl I went to prom with. Her telling me of the story about how some dude tried running her over with a truck in a nearby small town of Iowa to actually her and I being denied access to prom for whatever made up reason and we had to “celebrate prom” elsewhere by going to some other venue. Though I think they denied her for other reasons than who she was. But still, I agree absolutely that, in a place with less support among people like you, how that impacts you is different. Maybe you identify more with your roots, maybe less. I’ll leave that alone anyhow. Can’t comment much on it. You probably know more growing up in small town UK a few decades ago.

    “This is an interesting map – there is a big difference between Texas and your home state of Iowa – 7% isn’t shabby but it would be real easy not to speak Spanish or need to learn it if you don’t want to which is why you’re good for a job when you go home but in Texas it’s organic and an important part of their society.”

    True and, even though I don’t live in Florida, I have a cousin that does. She’s told me that speaking Spanish is very much desired for even basic jobs in her part of Florida (well, she doesn’t live there now but used to).

    “I suppose that’s where the whitening is happening”

    You could be right on that but I don’t know for sure. If there’s such a strong trend of Latinos less and less identifying as Latino and not speaking Spanish after enough generations and, given most Latinos don’t live in North Dakota or Iowa but instead Texas or California, how does that work? Wouldn’t that imply those trends can be seen, maybe to a lesser degree, in even those states?

    Because if those states make up the highest amount of Latinos, why are we seeing such noticeable numbers on the amount who don’t identify as Latino or speak Spanish after enough generations if those living in more supportive communities don’t have that as much? I would agree with you that they definitely have less pressure than the Latino growing up in small town Iowa. But many of the same forces mentioned before apply (some Latino parents failing to teach them Spanish, interracial marriages, other causes of a disconnect from Latino identity, etc).

    But, again, I’ll be clear in saying I don’t know how much “whitening” exists among North Dakotan Latinos versus California ones. Obviously, there’s not many polls on that and I did a brief search. So I’ll let it be.

    But I absolutely agree on the “path of least resistance” point. That’s part of how I’ve understood it.

    “As for the majority of Latinos identifying themselves as ‘white’ in these polls. I find strange to be honest – I would like to see some more in-depth rationale behind the pollsters self-identifying – what they look like and why do they think they’re white?”

    That would be great.

    That’s the difference between quantitative and qualitative research. Getting some to open up as to why they identify as they do.

    Take the Nick Fuentes example here. White looking dude of 25% Mexican ancestry. Likely doesn’t speak Spanish from what I know. Grew up in Western Springs, Illinois. Small town of 12,000. That could be an example of what you were talking about. Grow up in an environment like that, looking as white as you do, and without parents teaching Spanish or anything Latino, you simply identify as white.

    What about other Latinos? I couldn’t say. You’d need someone to look into the topic and actually interview people beyond basic survey questions like “what skin color is your hand?” or “do you identify as Latino or not?”

    I wouldn’t be surprised if someone did the heavy lifting on that but I don’t know.

    ” I have seen those figures also and I think it’s a bit high but who knows where they’re polling and who?”

    I at least agree with that when it comes to the Pew Survey poll. 80% of Latinos are light skinned? That’s obviously stretching it. In the “shades of Latino article,” there were some ideas offered for why they came up with that (polling people in the winter or spring, some respondents not being honest, etc). It’s definitely worthy of criticism.

      Dazza - November 16, 2021 Reply

      I have gone full circle with my answer so this will be my last post and I will read your reply…

      If the birthrate amongst Hispanic women is very low and one of the lowest amongst Americans

      https://kjzz.org/content/829526/birth-rates-decreased-drastically-hispanic-population

      But the Hispanic/Latino population is forecasted to double in the next 40 years then immigration isn’t going to decrease – it’s going to increase massively, what that means to me is that more and more people will be coming from outside the US borders who identify as Latino to live in America – however – they will bring their culture, families, ways and language – meaning, none of those things will be dying out anytime soon if at all, they will always be kept alive as long as they are able to emigrate north.

      There will be of course, people who marry outside the culture or go and live in Oregon who of course will (for whatever reason…) will discard their Latino heritage/Spanish language abilities but there will be those parts of The States that will be heavily culturally Latino. It seems to be six states – New Jersey, New York, California, Texas and Florida – where it won’t die out at all and seems to go from strength to strength.

      I need to go for a run! Take it easy!

        Matt - November 17, 2021 Reply

        Sorry for the late response. I was busy all day packing my bags and moving to a new apartment. All moved in. So let’s get to it.

        “I have gone full circle with my answer”

        I think we have been running in circles for a bit now. Much of what I will say here will be similar to before but I’ll also look at that Census source you provided more in detail below as it relates to your final words on the topic and then summarizing the main points here.

        “If the birthrate amongst Hispanic women is very low and one of the lowest amongst Americans”

        I’m not entirely sure that is true. As of 2019 according to this bit here, Hispanics are the second highest in the US birthrate 1.940 with Asians actually being the lowest at 1.511.

        Still, that slight change to your point isn’t relevant. Hispanics are still below replacement rates in the US and so is everyone else except “Native Hawaiian/Other Pacific Islander” at 2.178. It’s a good point to bring up though. We’ll look more into in a second.

        “But the Hispanic/Latino population is forecasted to double in the next 40 years”

        This is where we’ll look now at the Census information that you referenced before. I downloaded a 15 page document by the same source (Census) that looks into the same topic of the Census article you cited before. You can find it here. Title of the document is “Demographic Turning Points for the Untied States: Population Projects for 2020 to 2060” by Jonathan Vespa, Lauren Medina and David M. Armstrong. Was issued March 2018 and revised February 2020.

        Because, from what I am seeing, there’s basically two arguments we are focusing on.

        The source of where Latino population increases will come from and also how does that relate to future trends within the Latino community (trends we have been discussing already).

        So let’s get to it by returning to that quote.

        “But the Hispanic/Latino population is forecasted to double in the next 40 years then immigration isn’t going to decrease

        So, as I said, we’ll begin by looking through the document to help determine beyond the headlines regarding what real information Census has (or at least how I am reading it. Feel free to check out anything cited to see if you agree with any interpretation here by finding the document of the article here).

        Let’s break this down anyway by topics to discuss.

        Are the Numbers True?

        Yes. At least according to the source. On page 7, you’ll see that it’s estimated that there will be an increase from 57 million Hispanics in 2016 to 111 million Hispanics in 2060. What are their reasoning for this prediction?

        Immigration as the Cause?

        For one, there’s again no denying that immigration will obviously have its impact on the US population size as you can see in these quotes here. I never said that either and have agreed with that point before if I remember right.

        On page 1, you have this quote to work with first: “Beginning that year, because of population aging, immigration is projected to overtake natural increase (the excess of births over deaths) as the primary driver of population growth for the country.”

        Page 2: “As baby boomers age into older adulthood, the number of deaths is projected to rise faster than the number of births. As a result, the population will naturally grow very slowly, leaving international migration to overtake natural increase as the leading cause of population growth, even as projected levels of migration remain relatively flat.”

        People Not Having Kids?

        Having said that, let’s not deny there being any role either in the number of people having kids when it comes to population increases.
        Though I was surprised to see that having a role given the previous comment way above about most races or ethnicities (including Hispanics) being below replacement rate. So I’m not sure how you get an increase in population from birth rates if that’s the case but here’s some quotes from that same Census source.

        Page 2: “Beginning in 2030, net international migration is expected to overtake natural increase as the driver of population growth in the United States because of population aging. That year, the United States is projected to add 1 million people by natural increase (the number of births minus deaths) but 1.1 million through net international migration. Because the number of deaths is projected to rise substantially, in 2060 the U.S. population is projected to add about 500,000 people by natural increase, whereas net international migration is expected to add more than twice that number—1.1 million—to the population”

        Page 3: “The population of people who are Two or More Races is projected to be the fastest- growing racial or ethnic group over the next several decades, followed by Asians and Hispanics. The causes of their growth are different, however. For Hispanics and people who are Two or More Races, high growth rates are largely the result of high rates of natural increase, given the relatively young age structure of these populations. For Asians, the driving force behind their growth is high net international migration.”

        So there’s a few things to mention with the quotes above.

        First, as by your own source shows (well, not the exact same one but same entity publishing this info), there is a role that natural births will have in increasing the population and not just immigration.

        When it comes to Hispanics, the question is how much of a role does immigration play versus people having kids?
        Though the source doesn’t give numbers from what I saw separating how much of a contribution each one will give to the increase in Hispanic population (immigration versus birth rates), the last quote mentions that birth rates, and not immigration, is the driver.

        “For Hispanics and people who are Two or More Races, high growth rates are largely the result of high rates of natural increase, given the relatively young age structure of these populations. For Asians, the driving force behind their growth is high net international migration.”

        How Many White Latinos?

        Then we have this quote here on page 3 and another one on page 4.

        Page 3: “The non-Hispanic White population is projected to shrink over coming decades, from 199 million in 2020 to 179 million people in 2060— even as the U.S. population continues to grow. Their decline is driven by falling birth rates and rising number of deaths over time as the non-Hispanic White population ages. In comparison, the White population, regardless of Hispanic origin, is projected to grow from 253 million to 275 million over the same period.”

        “Page 4: “The native population is expected to add an aver- age of 1.3 million people per year, compared with 579,000 per year for the foreign-born population living in the United States. Children: • By 2020, fewer than one- half of children in the United States are projected to be non-Hispanic White (49.8 per- cent of the projected 74 mil- lion children under age 18). In comparison, about 72 percent of children are projected to be White, regardless of Hispanic origin. • The share of children who are Two or More Races is projected to more than double in coming decades, from 5.3 percent in 2016 to 11.3 percent in 2060.”

        Does that matter?

        Maybe, as we have seen in previous comments, plenty of white Latinos who are later generations away from their immigrant ancestors do not identify as Latino. Nick Fuentes being the classic example of many like him.

        Of course, as I said many times, said Latino could also no longer identify as Latino and something else like Asian, black, etc.

        The document didn’t cover how the increase of Latinos impacts the size of Asian or black people in the US (if I had to guess, probably not very much for Asians but maybe a little bit for black folks).

        And, to be fair, I think the document acknowledges that as you can see here.

        Issues with Self-Identification

        We have this interesting quote here.

        Page 12: “Projecting race and ethnicity is challenging. The number of births, deaths, and net international migrants affects the size of each race and ethnic group, but so do changes in self-identification and self- reporting. For example, there was considerable change in the race response of individuals who reported American Indian or Alaska Native between the 2000 Census and the 2010 Census. Moreover, the increase in the number of people who reported being both White and Black between the censuses was largely the result of people who reported both races in 2010, when they had previously reported only one race in 2000.* The projections do not account for social changes in self-identification or self-reporting of race and ethnicity”

        Again, you’ve seen the statistics brought up before. About half of Latinos don’t even identify as Latino by the 4th generation and many don’t speak Spanish at all by that point also.

        That isn’t to say that Latinos “disappear completely.”

        It’s like asking if the cup is half full or half empty.

        You still have that other 50% that do identify as Latino by that generation still.

        And, of course, we can discuss this in an historical context like the article does.

        A Precedent?

        The article mentions that these high rates of immigration are not unusual.

        That they very much reflect previous high points of immigration as you’ll see in these quotes here.

        Page 3 to Page 4: “The nation’s foreign-born population is projected to rise from 44 million people in 2016 to 69 million in 2060, growing from about 14 percent to 17 percent of the population. The previous historic high was in 1890, when almost 15 percent of the population was foreign-born.”

        Page 10: “Although the size of the foreign- born population is projected to rise, the next few decades will actually look like an earlier period in U.S. history. From the late 19th to early 20th century, the country experienced high levels of immigration, a period when roughly one in seven people in the United States were born in another country (Figure 4). After the First World War, the proportion of foreign-born began declining until it reached a historic low in 1970, when just one in 20 residents were foreign-born.16 Since 1970, the size of the foreign-born population has been rising and, if past trends continue, would total more than 69 million by 2060, or about one in six people living in the United States.”

        If I understood your comments previously correctly, it seems to me that you think that the wave of Latin American immigration is unprecedented.

        In terms of racial and ethnic composition of the US, it is. That is changing rapidly.

        However, in terms of total numbers, it doesn’t seem unprecedented if I’m reading the article right?

        It’s definitely reaching historically high levels and will continue to do so but, if I’m reading this right, it’s not like this hasn’t happened before.

        And yet the descendants of many of those previous immigrants in decades like 1890 don’t speak the language of their ancestors today (most don’t anyway).

        So why would Latinos be different? Especially when you consider the following points:

        1. This has happened similarly in the past at other very high rates and many of the descendants generations later still forgot the language of their ancestors.
        2. And, much more importantly, statistics back this up. As I said, you see a significant trend in Latinos identifying less and less as Latino and less speaking Spanish after each generation. So it doesn’t look like Latinos are different here. The only thing that might be different is the rate at which these trends happen compared to previous waves of immigrants. I’m not sure if that’s true but I could see it.

        Trends Change

        Then we have these two quotes here.

        Page 9: “Of the 44 million foreign-born living in the United States in 2016, just under one-half were Hispanic (Table 3), consistent with estimates from the American Community Survey which show that the majority of foreign born in the United States came from Latin America and the Caribbean.13 About one-quarter of the foreign-born population in 2016 was Asian, and a little under one-fifth was non-Hispanic White (Table 3). These numbers reflect the current total or stock of foreign-born living in the United States. The largest sending regions of migrants have been changing recently, however. Of those who arrived before 2000, most came from Latin American countries, followed by Asian countries. Since 2010, that trend has reversed with Asia replacing Latin America as the largest sending region of migrants to the United States.”

        Page 11: “Of course, these projections will hold true only if all other past trends continue and all assumptions about births, deaths, and international migration hold true. Migration trends are especially sensitive to policy and economic circumstances in both the United States and migrants’ country of origin. The projections in this report are based on historical trends in international migration and do not attempt to account for future policy or economic cycles”

        We discussed the Miami example before. Few in Miami of 1960 or so predicted how greatly it could change in the coming decades.

        It’s possible other great changes could happen to that city also.

        Though it’s hard to predict without hindsight, I would say climate change. Flooding gets worse and people leave.

        Do all of the Latinos go to the same area to have their own community elsewhere or do they go to various points based on their own interests (like job factors or having family in other states that don’t necessarily always have a big Latino population).

        And that last quote on page 11 mirrors well the previous quote way back about how, for Latinos, birthrates are a strong contribution to their population increase instead of immigration necessarily like you see among Asian folks.

        “For Hispanics and people who are Two or More Races, high growth rates are largely the result of high rates of natural increase, given the relatively young age structure of these populations. For Asians, the driving force behind their growth is high net international migration.”

        Though, as I said before, I don’t doubt that immigration won’t have its role.

        I do wonder though how much we overemphasize it?

        For example, as you can read here from Pew Research, it was reported in 2015 that more Mexicans were leaving the US than entering it. One of the reasons was economic issues among others.

        Of course, that’s a reversal of a trend we saw before where more Mexicans were coming to the US. Could it reverse again? Who knows.

        I do think though that, because of climate change, certain countries will be sending over a lot more people (Haiti, Cuba, DR, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, etc).

        But, as I said, not all of them are getting in and many others will get deported. That just happens.

        Others will stay in Mexico as I wrote before in a previous comment.

        And many other Latinos in other Latin countries will go to nearby countries instead of the US (Nicaragua to Costa Rica, Haiti to the DR, Venezuela to Colombia, Colombia to Chile, Bolivia to Argentina, etc).

        Most Latinos in Latin America are not coming to the US for various reasons (including how most would rather be in their home country like most people on the planet do anyhow).

        But, as we know, trends change and it’s hard to predict them accurately. Those trends impact migration rates. We’ll see with time what the future holds.
        And so the main thing to take from here?

        1. As the document shows, a lot of the Latino population increase supposedly will come form birthrates (what they call natural increases).
        2. But, as we know, immigration will have a significant role too. There’s no denying that.
        3. While the rates of predicted immigration are historical, they are not so crazy that similar rates of immigration haven’t happened before (and how did the descendants of those immigrants turn out?).
        And that’s where I’d like to end this article on.

        A Consideration: All of the Increase is from Immigration

        It’s a point I’ve touched on from other angles but will give one last hit before moving on.

        Let’s say, for the sake of argument, that the doubling of Latino population is literally all from immigration.

        Had I not read that document, I would’ve thought that would be most likely given that Hispanic birthrates are below replacement rate. So, again, I don’t get how natural birthrates are a driving force here but I’ll concede that to the US Census folks who have studied this issue. Maybe I misunderstood something there.

        Still, let’s consider the alternative reality where literally all of the predicted Latino population increase is from immigration alone.

        Would that matter as it relates to how many Latinos will not identify as Latino or speak Spanish?

        As it relates to some “loss of Latino hood” among Latinos down the road?

        I’d say no simply based on the information I have seen over the last few days.

        It’ll be a reiteration of previous points so we’ll briefly touch on this and wrap it up.

        You mention how it’s less likely for a “loss of Latino hood” among Latinos to happen because the wave of immigration is different and also because many of these Latinos will be living in Latino heavy areas where they can connect with their roots more easily than rural North Dakota.

        That’s all true.

        Those things would help any Latino to retain identity with those roots.

        However, not every Latino gives a fuck about that. Even if a Latino kid had a family that wanted to encourage him to speak Spanish, he might refuse to do so! Put up resistance.

        Or maybe grow up like your sister and, from what I could tell, isn’t interested in certain things like getting a second passport, speaking Spanish, etc.

        As you put it yourself in a previous comment, some Latinos will identify with their roots and others won’t. That’s the best way to put it.

        Even if all of the Latino population increase were from immigrants, why would they be any different from the Latino immigrants before them who also had Latino populated areas like Texas or California? Because you got even more Latinos? Doesn’t make sense to me because I don’t see the increase being substantial enough to fight against the trends we see working on the Latinos who live in the US now.

        And, as I said, we have the statistics from before to guide us on understanding future waves of Latino immigrants.

        Those statistics being:

        1. 59% of Latinos identifying as white and believing others see them as white (remember how the US white population actually increases by 2060 if you count white Hispanics?
        2. 49% of third-generation or later Latino parents speaking Spanish to their kids.
        3. 61% of Hispanic immigrants in the US are Spanish dominant but that falls to 1% by the third generation.
        4. Fewer than a quarter of Latinos by the third-generation are bilingual.
        5. About 50% of fourth generation Latinos identifying as white.

        So, unless we can establish better why the newer waves of Latino immigrants would be different (and ignoring how a lot of the population increase is actually from birthrates, carrying onwards to that third or fourth generation), then I don’t see how things will be too different for descendants of future Latino immigrants.

        Which, again, isn’t to say that the Spanish language and Latino culture is stripped out of the US.

        As I said, I don’t think we disagree much here.

        I agree that immigration will be much heavier in the coming decades.

        I agree that plenty of Latinos will continue to speak Spanish (to whatever degree they can) and retain their roots.

        I agree that those roots will have a bigger influence on US culture going forward on a societal scale.

        The only thing I disagree on is the percentage or degree of Latinos that will not identify as Latino and/or not speak Spanish at all in the coming decades.

        For me, the numbers speak for themselves and I just don’t see how the future conditions will be radically different to prevent later generation Latinos of the future from following the footsteps of later generation Latinos of the past.

        Also, we have your quote here: “There will be of course, people who marry outside the culture or go and live in Oregon who of course will (for whatever reason…) will discard their Latino heritage/Spanish language abilities but there will be those parts of The States that will be heavily culturally Latino. It seems to be six states – New Jersey, New York, California, Texas and Florida – where it won’t die out at all and seems to go from strength to strength.”

        Something that has come to my mind after reading that and writing everything else above…

        If a majority of Latinos after enough generations stop identifying as Latino and/or don’t speak Spanish, and if a majority of Latinos live in those 6 states (I assume they do), then doesn’t that imply that the same trends affect them also? After all, if it was just the smaller number of Latinos living in Ohio or Oregon, how could we see a 50% number by the fourth generation who don’t even identify as Latino? Wouldn’t that number be smaller?

        Still, as I said, I agree that living in a community with a stronger Latino culture will obviously lessen the amount of Latinos who do so (assuming said parents are actually Latino, that they actually try to teach their kid things like Spanish and assuming said kid actually tries to learn it). Which, given the higher rates of interracial marriages these days … OK OK, we already mentioned this. Time to move on!

        Anyway, that’s all I got to say. We have been going in a bit of a circle here. I think we’ll just have to agree to disagree on the extent to which past trends could be seen in future Latinos. But that’s for the future to show us anyhow what happens.

        Thanks for the chat!

Robert - November 16, 2021 Reply

bro why argue this latinos wil never be us they latinos tey want to be us bu cnt so y it matter?? what mattewrs are the girls can u talk about that for once ok? can u tell me whewre to fuck the best latinas? sluts like whwre is best to get sluts thx

    Dazza - November 16, 2021 Reply

    I don’t want to be you. Why would I?

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