Safest Countries in Latin America During a Third World War

As I wrote about in my first article on this website here…

There are different factors to consider for which countries one might want to move to.

Over the years of listening to other expat podcasts and reading articles from other folks living down here…

One rare topic that comes out every so often is in regards to which countries in Latin America would be safest in case “shit hits the fan.”

Sometimes that means the dollar collapsing…

Or, in other cases, it refers to something tragic as another World War or some nuclear winter…

It then comes up, I suppose – which countries in Latin America would be ideal if another world war or a nuclear conflict happened?

Or, perhaps more likely, another Cold War…

Perhaps between the US and China…

Though some might argue that has already started…

Such a Cold War could then spiral into a World War or a nuclear conflict of sorts…

Hell, even a conflict between China and the US is not necessary for a nuclear war to start…

Such as India and Pakistan blowing each other up with their nuclear weapons and that having consequences for the rest of the world.

Though perhaps paranoid to some…

I do think the risks of any of the three – a Cold War, World War or a nuclear conflict are all possible within our lifetime.

Though, to be fair, I don’t really let it dictate where I will settle down in Latin America…

For, if that were the case, I’d probably go as far south and isolated as possible – like Puerto Williams.

A nice little town in Chile that you can see in this video here…

Sure seems like a nice place to enjoy the “End of the World.”

Haha haha haha…

And perhaps not unusual in terms of the trends of history!

As it is well known that this part of the world – Chile, Argentina, Brazil, etc…

Had plenty of Nazis escape to after the end of the Second World War…

Not calling myself a Nazi of course (though maybe any of my Ex’s might disagree….)

And I don’t think they ever went as far south as Puerto Williams…

But, historically, South America sure did play a role for folks (some of bad character for sure) trying to escape a major conflict…

So if another World War were to happen…

Or a nuclear conflict…

Or a Cold War….

Which parts of Latin America would be best suited to relocating to ahead of time?

I say ahead of time – I sure hope you would have relocated prior to the nukes being fired off towards small town Indiana or wherever you are located….

After all, given the length of time needed to get through TSA and all…

You might find difficulty in catching a plane last second when the nukes are about to arrive in 30 minutes or less…

I put the three terms together by the way – World War, Cold War and nuclear conflict…

Since they tend to go together well…

And, of course, this is all just a major guestimate – I can’t predict what the world will be like in 50 years if such a conflict were to happen in 2070 (or after or before that date).

But based on my knowledge of history and current events…

This is my rough guess…

A thought experiment and nothing more….

As to what places would serve best for hiding out during such a major conflict.

And if you have any thoughts yourself on the matter – drop them below in the comment section.

Thanks.

So let’s get to it country by country.

Mexico

In World War 1, Germany proposed to Mexico an alliance against the US under the situation that Mexico would try to recover Texas, Arizona and New Mexico if the US ever entered the war.

Known as the Zimmermann Telegram.

Mexico rejected the offer.

Being the Buenos Hermanos that they are!

Not Bad Hombres….

But…

Such a revelation revealed the degree to which Mexico is important strategically in such a world conflict obviously.

Any country wishing harm on the US would want to invade our “sphere of influence” by forming alliances with Latin American countries that are relatively close to the US.

Such as what the Soviets did with Cuba during the Cold War.

It’s also a large reason why the US, over the last few decades after the collapse of the Soviet Union, has tried to expand its sphere of influence into Eastern Europe.

Which all around gives the US in this case more influence and military and diplomatic might against any major countries in that region.

Like Russia in this case.

Or Cuba in the case of the Cold War.

Or Mexico when the Germans tried to forge an alliance during World War 1.

All around, it is difficult to predict obviously the extent of the role that Mexico would play in any new Cold War or World War.

But it would, I assume, have plenty of importance given the fact that it is a neighboring country.

And, for that reason, Mexico is not a country I would want to settle down in concern about such a major conflict was more important to me than anything else.

Because while Mexico could supposedly turn against the US and ally with another country against us…

They could also just as likely stand strong with the US and risk getting bombed in a major conflict.

So I’d just drop Mexico from any consideration.

Decision: Not Safe.

Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and Belize

While I don’t believe that Mexico would likely turn against the US due to its strong relationship and financial support it gets from its trade with the US…

I also doubt, to a degree, how much Central America would turn against the US also.

But it’s entirely possible!

As Nicaragua is a country that has a government that is more hostile to the US.

But Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and Belize?

For the moment, it doesn’t seem like these countries would be major players or have any role in such a major conflict.

So I will list them as relatively safe – though, again, we don’t know how history will play out in the upcoming century.

Because, as we saw in the Cold War between the Soviets and the US….

It was quite common for the two superpowers to use developing countries as battlegrounds for proxy wars.

Like in El Salvador or Nicaragua for example…

So, like with any country in this article, it is entirely possible any one of them become battleground for a new proxy war…

Between an authoritarian government backed by one country and guerrilla groups on the other.

Like the two superpowers kicking sand in each other’s face while not going all out with the nukes on each other specifically.

But since I can’t predict obviously with any degree of certainty on which countries would be the new battlegrounds for proxy wars…

I can’t let that influence my decision very strongly.

But it is something to keep in mind – only on current trends that I am aware of.

Decision: Safe.

Nicaragua

Nicaragua currently has a government run by Daniel Ortega who is more hostile to the US in general.

If their government continues to be hostile to the US, I’d argue that they could be a possible place for any other superpower hostile to the US to extend its influence in the Western Hemisphere.

There was talk, for example, of China thinking of building a “Nicaragua Canal” to oppose the Panama Canal some years ago…

Not sure where they are on that project but it’s not around yet.

Could be someday…

All around, given the current situation with their government, I wouldn’t trust Nicaragua as a safe place.

Who is to say that in another Cold War that Nicaragua doesn’t become the next Cuba for a hostile government to place important military and strategic resources there against the US.

Or for Nicaragua to become another proxy war battleground..

So let’s say it is unsafe for now.

Decision: Not Safe

Costa Rica

With my limited knowledge of Costa Rica, it really doesn’t seem like a country at risk of being a major player in any major conflict.

It doesn’t seem hostile to the US at least from what I read about in the news.

And they apparently don’t have a military as you can read here…

But, like I said under the section for Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras..

Anything is possible.

But I look at Costa Rica as being relatively safe for now.

I don’t see anything too concerning with the country in terms of there being danger living there under a Cold War or World War.

Decision: Safe.

Panama

Given that strategic importance of the Panama Canal…

I’d be concerned about settling down in Panama if a world war was going to happen…

Because of its ownership of the Panama Canal and its important for world trade and moving resources around.

I don’t currently see it as a point of being a battleground for proxy war…

Though the US did invade Panama around 1989 to 1990…

So, like I cautioned several times before, anything is possible and the situation on the ground in Panama could change dramatically over the next 50 years or so..

But, for now given what we know, I’d caution against it solely based on any strategic importance it might have owning the Panama Canal…

Plus, from what you can read here, Panama is one of the Latin countries with the most US military bases.

12 to be specific as you can read here.

Decision: Not Safe.

Puerto Rico

Given that Puerto Rico is a territory of the US…

With 12 US military bases there…

I’m just going to call it as not safe.

Leave it at that.

If a World War happened, I could see it easily playing a role or getting bombed.

Decision: Not Safe.

Cuba

Given that the Cuban government is still hostile to the US and vice versa…

And given its role in the Cold War and close proximity to the US…

I’m going to again keep it simple and call it not safe.

Decision: Not Safe.

Dominican Republic

The Dominican Republic is a little bit difficult to predict.

Because it doesn’t seem hostile to the US based on just some of what I have been reading…

And seems to have relatively strong financial relations with the US…

But, like Cuba or Puerto Rico, it is close to the US.

And if another super power wanted to fuck with the US, then the Dominican Republic would be a good place to set up base given how close it is to the US.

Question is could such a superpower convince the government of the DR in that time to turn against the US and allow military resources from that superpower to be based there.

There’s no indication of that but, like I said, things can change.

I will just say it is safe but with caution.

Decision: Safe But With Caution

Colombia

Colombia is a country that I am just going to assume is not very safe.

First, as you can see here, Colombia is the only Latin American country that is a global partner of NATO.

Just for that affiliation, I’d cross it off the list.

Anything affiliated with NATO – just cross it off.

No chances there.

Second, Colombia has about 9 US military bases there as you can read here.

There seems to be, from what I have read, somewhat of a military relationship to a degree between the two countries.

And I wouldn’t want to take the risk there.

Though I do doubt to a degree that Colombia would ever be bombed – just some of these facts, including the detail about NATO especially – makes me cautious with this country.

Decision: Not Safe.

Venezuela

Given the hostile nature of the Venezuelan government to the US…

And their more open relationship with countries like China as you can read here or here...

Or their more open relationship with Russia as you can read here or here….

And also the fact that Venezuela, given its relatively close proximity to the US, could be used as a place to host attacks on US territory…

As you can read about here…

I’m going to call Venezuela as unsafe.

Decision: Not Safe.

Ecuador

I could just as well see Ecuador being used a hostile country against the US.

Their last president was Rafael Correa who had a bit of hostility against the US.

And his VP, Lenin Moreno, now runs the country.

Vladimir Lenin?

No, no…

Lenin Moreno…

Another Lenin.

Either way…..

Given its close proximity to the US and the hostility their government has to the US…

I’d cross them off the list also.

Decision: Not Safe.

Peru

Peru, from my understanding, is not as hostile to the US.

But it also does have, according to this source, about 8 US military bases..

But I don’t really seeing any hostile country bombing Peru just because of that.

From my limited understanding, they seem to not have too much strategic importance to the US right now..

If they adopted a more hostile government against the US, then I could see it…

But would any hostile government bomb them just because of those few military bases?

Wouldn’t they bomb every other military base of the US in the world also?

So, I’m not entirely convinced that Peru would be too unsafe.

But similar to the DR, I’m going to label this one as safe but with caution.

Decision: Safe But With Caution

Bolivia

Bolivia is another country that has had more hostility to the US under former president Evo Morales…

And while they have another president that is from the same political party as Evo Morales…

A guy named Luis Arce…

I’m not really familiar or sure in regards to how hostile his government will be towards the US.

And also I don’t see Bolivia – being the middle of South America without any access to the ocean either – as being held as a point of launching attacks against the US.

On the other hand, Bolivia does have immense resources of importance – such as lithium.

So, under a more realistic scenario, if I had to guess, I could see it more likely as being a battleground for a proxy war to have a more favorable government that allows access to those lithium and other natural resources.

But that’s just a guess – who knows.

Either way, given its farther distance from the US…

And the fact that Bolivia is one of the poorest countries of Latin America…

And obvious difficulty in knowing if it would ever be a place for a proxy war..

Who knows – I’d give it the same category as the last group.

Decision: Safe But With Caution

Chile

For the most part, I see Chile as being safe.

Though in the Cold War, they did have internal conflict under the Salvador Allende and Pinochet years…

I don’t really see this country ever getting bombed by anyone during a major conflict.

And, as I will get to later in this article, it could be a relatively decent place to live if the threat of nuclear radiation was moving around the planet.

And since I can’t predict well how likely this place would ever be used as a spot for a proxy war…

I’ll just list it as save for now.

Decision: Safe.

Argentina

Everything I said for Chile is how I feel for Argentina also.

I don’t see anyone bombing Argentina.

And it’s so far from the US relative to other Latin American countries that I don’t see any hostile superpower using Argentina as a point to launch attacks on us.

Plus, it would be, from my understanding, a relatively better place to be if nuclear radiation was an issue on the planet.

The only new thing to say about Argentina…

Is that given their more chaotic nature of politics and economics…

Where they have had more instability with both over the last few decades…

It does seem to me to be a more unstable place where internal conflict would be more likely to rise…

Between different guerrilla or terrorist groups and an authoritarian government somewhere in the mix..

Like we saw with this country in the 20^th century….

But as I find it even harder to predict which country would have that type of internal conflict…

I’m just going to label it as safe for now despite the issue of stability as mentioned before.

Decision: Safe.

Uruguay

I definitely don’t see anyone bombing Uruguay in a World War.

If you want to pick the most developed country of Latin America that probably, according to me, has the least likely chance of a civil conflict of being bombed by a superpower…

Go with Uruguay.

It’s one of the most developed countries down here.

It seems the least likely for civil conflict, as of now, due to how well the population lives relatively speaking…

Though I’m sure it’s not a perfect country – don’t get confused, I’m not saying that.

Just relative to other Latin American countries…

And also I can’t see anyone bombing it – unless anyone has better insight into how this would be a strategically important country…

I just don’t see it.

So?

Decision: Probably the Safest in this List.

Paraguay

Half of what I said for Uruguay could be said for Paraguay.

In that I don’t see anyone bombing Paraguay.

Why would they?

To capture the town of Ita?

Cmon…

However, given the greater socioeconomic inequality and greater poverty in this country…

I could see civil conflicts arising between governments and guerrilla groups…

But, like with any country, who really knows if that would play out over the next century…

So, for the most part, I’ll label it as safe as of this writing in 2020.

Decision: Safe.

Brazil

Finally…

Brazil!

I’ll label this one as safe but with caution.

On one hand, I can see how Brazil can have more importance given it is one of the richest countries of Latin America…

But, similar to World War 2….

While they engaged in some activity in WW2

As far I am aware, nobody bombed them on their territory in Brazil.

So would another World War be the same?

I would see them as being a country that sends in support for whatever side they picked to ally with…

But not one that is likely to be seen as necessary to be bombed relative to other places in the world that a superpower could bomb…

So, to keep it simple like with Peru, I will label it as safe with caution.

And then move onto an important side factor to consider before finishing this article with some other relevant topics of importance….

Decision: Safe But With Caution

The Lone Factory in Argentina?

When reading up about how Latin America would play out in a World War…

I remember coming across an article claiming that there is evidence that the Soviet Union considered bombing a factory in Argentina if a World War with the US ever happened…

In large part because they determined that this factory had some importance to the US…

Now regardless of if that is true or not since I didn’t check the historical archives on that obviously to determine if that article was true or not…

It does bring up an interesting factor to consider in that it is possible that in such a World War…

Between the Soviets and the US…

Or China and the US…

That specific individual locations might be bombed but the rest of the country in which those spots are located are left alone.

Would the Soviets have continued bombing Buenos Aires and the rest of the country or just leave them alone?

If I had to guess, maybe just leave them alone and focus the rest of their resources on NATO and the US.

If the threat of that single factory in Argentina is neautralized, then so be it!

So some might argue the Soviets would have bombed the rest of Argentina into the stone age in this scenario just so ensure that they don’t interfere against them..

But would the Soviets really give a rats ass about the Argentine military coming after them?

It ain’t the Americans, British or the Germans after all…

But who knows…

Either way, it just bring up a side point that much of this article can’t consider in full depth..

Because I don’t have access to the military intelligence of countries like China or Russia to know what they consider important to bomb in Latin America under such a war…

Maybe there’s a small factory in Paraguay that they think would need to be taken out..

I have no idea!

So I find that hard to factor into my decision as to which countries are the safest or not and will just leave it alone.

But that unknown factor as to what the military intelligence would consider bombing individually in specific Latin countries is a factor that needs to be mentioned.

As it could change the calculus as to what places down here are safest to hide away at during such a conflict.

And speaking of other factors to consider….

Nuclear Radiation?

Be it a major World War between the US and China…

Or a regional nuclear conflict between Pakistan and India…

The topic of nuclear radiation is needed to be discussed separately.

Though, similar to the last factor, there is a bit of unknown when it comes to this.

Obviously, if you live in France and Germany gets nuked…

Or if you live in Ohio and Michigan gets nuked…

You will probably experience a bit of nuclear radiation obviously…

The question that I have – and couldn’t find an answer to based on the research I looked up…

Is how much nuclear radiation would each country in Latin America be exposed to in a World War with nuclear weapons used?

Obviously, it depends on what gets nuked…

As you might be fucked if Chiapas, Mexico gets nuked for whatever reason and you live in Guatemala…

But assuming no nukes are thrown at Latin America specifically but only countries like the US, England, Russia, China, etc…

I’d say Mexico and some of the Spanish Caribbean countries might have the hardest time given their close location to places like Texas, or Florida…

Perhaps Central America also…

But, based on the research I have read and my very, very limited understanding of how nuclear radiation would move throughout the planet…

I feel 60% confident that the southern most parts of Latin America would have the best chance of getting the least exposure to nuclear radiation…

Like anything from Paraguay and below let’s say…

Of course, given the wide variety of variables…

From who gets bombed and how exactly the radiation moves around and who is closest to it…

That’s nothing more than a guestimate like all of this article is really.

Just a mind experiment as I said before.

Food Insecurity

Finally, the last factor to consider is food insecurity.

If a nuclear winter were to occur, then there would be a lot more food insecurity in the planet.

With a lot more countries finding it difficult to produce food and all.

I read here that apparently about 2 billion people are at risk recently.

And that would obviously worsen with nuclear winter.

Now, again, there isn’t any research I could find on how this specifically impacts Latin America country by country…

So I’m just going to use a little bit of my own logic here…

And look at which countries produce the most food themselves.

Though a nuclear winter would fuck over the agricultural industry of most or every country on the planet…

I assume that countries that already produce the most food would have it easier than countries that don’t produce shit.

Anyway, according to this article from the Academic Source of Yahoo…

Where they go over the top 25 most agriculturally productive countries on the planet…

The list from most productive to least is (only counting Latin American countries)…

• Brazil
• Chile
• Mexico
• Peru
• Argentina

And that’s it in the top 25!

So that might be of importance as well for those thinking of which countries would be best to chill in during a nuclear conflict…

Now let’s get to the final verdict…

The Final Verdict

So like I said…

If this is the most important factor or one of the most important factors to you for deciding where to settle down here…

Then, just out of safety, I’d drop the following countries or areas to summarize:

• Mexico
• Cuba
• Puerto Rico
• Nicaragua
• Panama
• Colombia
• Venezuela
• Ecuador

And the countries I’d be cautious with are:

• The Dominican Republic
• Brazil
• Bolivia
• Peru

With the rest seeming to be safe enough with Uruguay as being the safest in my opinion.

And, as I’d like to remind again, this entire article is nothing more than a thought experiment.

I’d have to – and maybe I will – update it every 5 years or so since changes can happen so quick that can make a country go from being safe to not safe.

Take Cuba for example.

Was Cuba really a threat to the US during the Cold War when it was being run by a dictator named Batista?

Would Batista have been as likely to align with the Soviets?

Take Mexico in World War 1…

If Mexico wasn’t dealing with the impact of the Mexican Revolution…

Would they have formed that alliance with Germany?

I have no idea.

Had Salvador Allende taken the advice from the Castro to arm his supporters and get ready for war as you can read here…

Would he have died the way he did or fought a successful campaign against Pinochet and those fighting against him?

Changing the history of Chile forever…

To perhaps being a country more hostile to the US in modern day…

So much can change so quickly in a relatively short amount of time – definitely within a century and less….

That, as I said, all of this article is nothing more than a thought experiment for those in 2020.

Maybe by 2030, much of what is said in this article no longer applies…

Perhaps, in some crazy scenario, Paraguay somehow economically advances so greatly and develops an impressive military that it can now conquer the rest of Spanish America…

Achieving the dream of Bolivar to unite all of Spanish America under one and starts a conflict with the US!

Well, ok, that sounds like bullshit but you get the idea with that exaggerated example..

Or with the historical ones I brought up above.

Who knows how history will play out in the next 100 years.

But, based on everything I know now, these are the countries I mentioned above that I consider to be safest and least safe for relocating to in case of a major conflict.

And those predictions, without any question, will change as the situation on the ground year changes over my lifetime.

And maybe I will remember this article and update it – hopefully!

But if you have any insights of your own – drop them below in the comments.

And follow my Twitter here.

Thanks.

Best regards,

Matt